Used Truck Market to Reach USD 70.74 Billion by 2031 as Digital Auctions and Fleet Renewal Reshape the Secondary Market, Reports Mordor Intelligence

Mordor Intelligence projects the used-truck market to grow from USD 55.38 billion in 2026 to USD 70.74 billion by 2031, a 5.02% CAGR. Fleet replacement, emissions rules, infrastructure investment, last-mile delivery demand, and digital sales channels are cited as drivers; heavy-duty trucks currently hold a major share, while demand for lighter trucks is increasing.

Analysis

The investable implication is less “market growth” than a redistribution of value between new-vehicle makers, used channels, and fleet operators. More reliable mid-life supply can lower the acquisition cost for smaller carriers and contractors, supporting fleet capacity without equivalent new-truck orders; that is a potential volume and residual-value headwind for PCAR, DTG, IVG, and VOLV.B. Conversely, OEM-backed certified-used programs may defend customer relationships and service capture, but the report provides no evidence that this offsets new-unit substitution.

RBA and Ryder (R) could benefit if higher turnover translates into more consignments or used-unit sales. Treat that as a volume hypothesis, not an earnings conclusion: the report gives no channel share, take-rate, or unit economics. Copart (CPRT) is not a clean beneficiary; used-truck turnover is not the same as salvage supply. Diesel resale flows from tightening emissions rules may also be geographically segmented rather than freely arbitraged, while uncertain battery health and charging access could discount used electric trucks and slow replacement economics.

Near term, this PR-based forecast is not a catalyst; its modest projected growth and lack of independently verifiable operating data argue against paying for a thematic rerating. Over 1–3 months, watch OEM order commentary, used-truck auction volumes/prices, and fleet replacement disclosures. Over 6–18 months, residual-value pressure is the key downside channel for new-truck economics; verified certified-used penetration or stronger aftermarket/service capture could mitigate it. The thesis weakens if used prices remain firm while new orders accelerate, or if auction volumes fail to rise despite fleet turnover.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate position based on this report alone; it is a market-research forecast, not company-level evidence. Avoid treating its projected market expansion as incremental earnings guidance.
• Watch RBA and R for reported truck consignment/sales volumes and revenue quality before expressing a used-channel long. A rise in listings or gross transaction value without improved monetization would not confirm the thesis.
• Maintain a conditional relative-value watch: used supply growth could pressure new-truck demand and residuals at PCAR, DTG, IVG, and VOLV.B. Do not initiate a short without corroboration from order trends, used-price data, or management commentary.
• Track used diesel versus electric truck resale values, age mix, and regional emissions rules. A widening resale discount or faster-than-expected price declines would strengthen the residual-risk thesis; stable values alongside rising turnover would falsify it.