These 2 Construction Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks identifies Martin Marietta (MLM) and SPX Technologies (SPXC) as potential earnings-beat candidates, with positive Earnings ESPs of 4.44% and 3.71%, respectively; both carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Their next reports are scheduled for November 3, 2026, for MLM and October 29, 2026, for SPXC. The article cites a Zacks backtest in which stocks with positive ESP and a rank of #3 or better delivered positive earnings surprises 70% of the time; these are forecast signals, not reported results.

Analysis

Treat the positive estimate gaps as an event-screening signal, not evidence of improving underlying demand. A late analyst revision can flag new information, but without revision breadth, revenue estimates, estimate dispersion, or the source of the change, the signal is difficult to distinguish from a single-estimate adjustment. The cited historical hit rate and returns are promotional backtest claims, not a forecast of these releases or proof of investable excess return.

The two names are not a clean read-through pair: Martin Marietta is exposed to aggregates pricing, volumes, and construction activity; SPX Technologies has different industrial and building-systems drivers. A beat could therefore reflect mix, timing, or project execution rather than a broad construction inflection. For both, guidance and forward demand commentary are more consequential than a small EPS beat; a beat with unchanged or weaker outlook could still sell off.

Near term, releases scheduled for October 29 (SPX Technologies) and November 3 (Martin Marietta) create binary gap risk. Over 1–3 months, watch estimate revisions after results and management commentary on order/backlog or demand, pricing, and costs. Over 6–18 months, a sustained construction/infrastructure slowdown would overwhelm a one-quarter surprise. Contrarian point: the signal may be over-weighted by investors because it is quantified, while the article supplies no independent fundamental corroboration. No directional edge is established without valuation, options-implied move, and revision history.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not buy either stock solely on the ESP screen. Before taking event risk, verify revision breadth and timing, revenue and full-year estimate changes, and whether the estimate adjustment is tied to durable demand rather than timing or mix.
• Keep both on an earnings watchlist rather than initiating an unhedged pre-release position. If choosing to trade, use a small, defined-risk call spread only if updated operating indicators corroborate the estimate revisions and its cost is below the expected move; otherwise pass. Options-implied volatility and expected moves are missing and must be checked.
• After each release, favor the name with stronger forward guidance and corroborating operating metrics over the name with the larger headline EPS beat. Falsify a bullish read if guidance or relevant demand/order indicators weaken, or if the stock gives back its post-release gain; avoid treating the two companies as a direct pair.