3 Financial Stocks Berkshire Hathaway Owns That I'd Buy Before Buying Berkshire Itself

The article highlights American Express, Chubb, and Moody's as potentially attractive Berkshire Hathaway holdings, citing durable competitive moats and growth. Chubb reported 18.2% year-over-year Q2 2026 core operating-income growth, while book value and tangible book value rose 12.3% and 17.1%; it trades below 12x forward earnings. Moody's posted roughly 15% annualized sales growth, operating margins near 50%, and adjusted earnings and operating-cash-flow growth above 30%, supporting its 24x forward P/E premium, while Amex's $4.53 quarterly EPS beat was overshadowed by a lukewarm outlook.

Analysis

The most actionable dispersion is within financials rather than a broad BRK.A proxy. AXP’s earnings sensitivity is increasingly tied to premium-card acquisition costs and credit normalization, not simply affluent spending; a modest rise in provisions or elevated rewards expense can prevent operating leverage despite healthy billed business. The near-term setup is therefore valuation-dependent: a re-acceleration in card-member growth and stable net write-offs over the next 1-2 quarters supports multiple expansion, while weaker loan growth or higher rewards intensity would expose the stock’s premium versus V and MA.

CB offers the cleaner fundamental case only if the commercial P&C pricing cycle remains rational. Underwriting outperformance compounds tangible book value and investable float, but a benign-loss environment is already embedded in insurer valuations; catastrophe losses, reserve strengthening, or renewed price competition would impair both earnings and the book-value compounding narrative. Favor CB over WRB/MKL only if upcoming renewal-rate disclosures remain ahead of loss-cost trends and the combined ratio stays resilient through catastrophe season.

MCO’s premium should be viewed as a leveraged bet on debt issuance, structured-finance volumes, and sustained operating-margin conversion. The key contrarian point is that the MCO-SPGI valuation gap is unlikely to close merely because MCO is higher margin: SPGI’s diversified data franchises provide a buffer if issuance weakens. A softer-rate environment can lift both rating agencies over 6-18 months, but MCO has greater downside if refinancing activity disappoints or credit spreads widen; this is not a clean defensive financial exposure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a 3-6 month long CB / short WRB pair, sized beta-neutral. Target relative upside from sustained underwriting and book-value compounding; exit if CB’s reported combined ratio deteriorates materially or renewal pricing falls below estimated loss-cost inflation.
• Keep AXP on watch rather than buy the post-earnings weakness. Upgrade only after the next report confirms stable net write-offs, controlled rewards expense, and renewed billed-business/card-member growth; a guidance cut or provision build would falsify the rebound thesis.
• Express a lower-rate, issuance-recovery view through long SPGI rather than MCO, or long SPGI / short MCO for relative defense over 6-12 months. Reverse if MCO demonstrates issuance-driven revenue growth materially above SPGI without margin erosion.
• Avoid treating Berkshire’s portfolio activity as a standalone signal for MA or V. For payments exposure, use MA or V as the lower-credit-risk alternative to AXP when consumer-credit data weaken, while recognizing they retain greater cross-border and macro volume sensitivity.