The S&P 500 just logged another losing week, yet these stocks could be due for a bounce

The S&P 500 fell 0.1% for a second straight losing week and the Dow dropped 1.7%, as the 10-year Treasury yield reached a 19-year high and the Federal Reserve raised rates 25bps. Boeing fell more than 5% after warning that 737 Max production stabilization is taking longer than expected, while Bank of America slid 8% on expectations for a more than 10% decline in Q3 investment-banking fees. Energy shares outperformed as Marathon Petroleum rose over 7% to a $428 record high, supported by higher oil prices following a drone attack-related Saudi pipeline closure; the stock is up 161% year to date.

Analysis

RSI extremes are a flow signal, not a fundamental catalyst: mean reversion is most reliable over 5-15 trading days when the underlying earnings estimate is intact. That distinction favors a tactical long in WYNN over BA or BAC. WYNN’s valuation already embeds weak Macau/LV expectations, while a modest improvement in China visitation, premium-mass hold, or Las Vegas convention revenue can produce operating leverage; BA faces a longer-duration production, certification and customer-compensation overhang that makes any technical bounce vulnerable to fresh operational headlines.

BAC’s selloff should be separated into cyclical fee pressure and a potentially offsetting rate benefit. If long-end yields remain elevated without a material rise in credit losses, deposit beta stabilization and securities-portfolio accretion can support 2027 NII expectations; the near-term catalyst is third-quarter commentary on trading, deposits and CET1 rather than investment-banking fees alone. Conversely, a faster growth scare that steepens credit-loss expectations would compress large-bank multiples despite higher yields, making BAC a watch rather than a blind oversold purchase.

The more actionable dislocation may be in refiners rather than crude producers. MPC, VLO and PSX have substantial upside sensitivity to refined-product cracks and domestic logistics, but their equity momentum can reverse sharply if crude rises faster than gasoline/distillate prices, squeezing crack spreads. A sustained supply disruption is structurally more favorable to integrated upstream exposure than refiners; therefore, energy longs should be paired with a crack-spread monitor and treated as weeks-long geopolitical trades, not durable valuation reratings. Over 6-18 months, persistently high fuel costs raise recession and demand-destruction risk, which is adverse to both refiners and casino discretionary spending.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a 2-4 week tactical long WYNN versus short LVS in equal dollar size only if WYNN holds above its recent low for two consecutive sessions; WYNN offers greater rebound convexity from depressed sentiment, while LVS hedges Macau/China gaming-beta risk. Exit if WYNN breaks the recent low by 5% or Macau monthly GGR decelerates materially.
• Avoid bottom-fishing BA despite the technical setup. Reassess only after a verifiable production-rate milestone and confirmation that free-cash-flow timing is unchanged; absent that, downside from delivery delays, supplier disruption and customer concessions exceeds a likely RSI bounce.
• Set a pre-earnings alert on BAC rather than establish a full position: go long on evidence of stable deposits, controlled charge-offs and NII guidance resilience. Falsification is a material CET1 drawdown, rising commercial-real-estate provisions, or a downward revision to full-year NII; use XLF as the lower-idiosyncratic alternative.
• Take profits or hedge existing MPC/VLO/PSX longs over the next 1-3 weeks through partial sales or XLE puts. Maintain residual exposure only while gasoline and distillate cracks hold firm; a crude-led rally with falling cracks would favor short refiners versus long XOM/CVX.
• For a higher-conviction energy expression, use a 1-3 month long XOM or CVX / short MPC pair if product cracks weaken while geopolitical supply risk remains elevated. The pair isolates upstream realization from refinery-margin compression; close if supply-disruption risk de-escalates or Brent falls below its pre-disruption range.