Viasat SVP Craig Miller sells $851k in stock

Viasat executive Craig Andrew Miller sold 11,893 shares for approximately $851,629 on October 9, 2026, under a 10b5-1 plan, after exercising options for the same number of shares at $15.96; he also reported vesting of 75,000 options at that exercise price. Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $1.2 billion, roughly 1% lower year over year and in line with forecasts, while EBITDA declined 7% year over year and missed consensus by 1%; Viasat reiterated its fiscal 2027 guidance. Analysts offered mixed views, with Raymond James and Needham maintaining positive ratings and Barclays reiterating Equalweight.

Analysis

The article’s headline is inconsistent with its body: it contains no usable ASML news, so there is no basis here for an ASML trade. For Viasat, the executive’s planned sale is a weak standalone bearish signal: it followed an option exercise, was made under a pre-existing 10b5-1 plan, and the executive retains meaningful direct and option exposure. The more relevant signal is operating leverage in the wrong direction: EBITDA fell faster than revenue, while the named segments did not show growth. If that pattern persists, earnings revisions—not insider activity—are the likely pressure on the equity story.

The bullish counterweight is that Viasat-3 F3 has entered service, potentially supporting capacity and commercial execution in Asia-Pacific. But service commencement is not proof of utilization, pricing, or incremental cash flow; those are the metrics to verify. The wide analyst-target dispersion underscores uncertainty rather than providing a reliable valuation anchor.

Near term, the sale may add noise after a strong share-price run, but does not by itself establish informed distribution. Over 1–3 months, watch guidance delivery and segment-level revenue/EBITDA for evidence that satellite deployment translates into improved economics. Over 6–18 months, the key risk is that capacity growth arrives before demand or pricing, leaving returns below expectations. A sustained improvement in EBITDA and commercial utilization would falsify the cautious thesis; further EBITDA declines or a guidance cut would strengthen it.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not trade ASML off this item: the article body provides no ASML-specific evidence.
• For VSAT, avoid treating the 10b5-1 sale as a standalone short signal. Do not chase the recent rally without confirming that the new satellite capacity is converting into revenue and cash generation.
• Watch the next results and guidance for segment revenue, EBITDA direction, and evidence of Viasat-3 F3 utilization/pricing. A repeat of EBITDA underperformance or a guidance reduction would be a bearish catalyst; improving operating metrics would invalidate that view.
• No immediate options or pair trade is justified by this mixed, limited evidence. Reassess a bearish position only if operating performance weakens further, rather than using the insider transaction or analyst targets as the trigger.