Go for Artemis III.

The near-term read-through is less about NASA itself and more about the expanding commercial ecosystem around high-visibility lunar missions. Any sustained uplift in Artemis enthusiasm tends to benefit the narrow set of prime contractors, launch integrators, sensor/avionics vendors, and materials suppliers that can credibly support deep-space systems qualification; the market usually underestimates how much value accrues to second-tier suppliers when a program moves from concept optics to recurring hardware buys.

The second-order winner is the infrastructure stack that de-risks schedule, not the marquee moonshot names. Thermal systems, radiation-hardened semis, propulsion components, and mission simulation/testing providers often see a multi-quarter lagged repricing once investor attention shifts from headline mission dates to execution certainty. Conversely, companies tied to legacy space platforms without Artemis relevance can get crowded out as procurement budgets and engineering talent reallocate toward lunar-capable architectures.

The main risk is that this is a sentiment spike, not a funding event. If program milestones slip, or if congressional appropriations remain flat, the enthusiasm reverses quickly because the revenue linkage is long-dated and lumpy; in that case, the move can unwind over weeks while fundamentals lag by quarters. A more durable catalyst would be evidence of contract awards, supplier qualification updates, or astronautics test cadence accelerating over the next 3-6 months.

Contrarianly, the market may be overpricing the headline and underpricing execution bottlenecks: lunar programs are notorious for margin pressure, schedule slippage, and working-capital drag, which means the biggest public beneficiaries are often not the pure space names but diversified industrials with existing defense exposure and optionality. The better setup is to own the infrastructure picks-and-shovels while fading enthusiasm in unprofitable space equities that trade on narrative rather than backlog conversion.