These 2 Computer and Technology Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks estimates ON Semiconductor has a +5.68% Earnings ESP, with a most-accurate EPS estimate of $0.93 versus the $0.88 consensus ahead of its November 2, 2026 earnings release; it carries a #3 (Hold) rank. Marvell Technology has a +1.74% ESP, with estimated EPS of $1.12 versus $1.10 consensus ahead of its December 1 report, and a #2 (Buy) rank. Zacks says positive ESP combined with a rank of #3 or better has produced positive earnings surprises 70% of the time in its analysis; neither company has reported results yet.

Analysis

The signal is a short-dated estimate-revision indicator, not evidence of improving end-demand or a forecast of share-price upside. In particular, ON’s 5.68% ESP is the gap between two EPS estimates—not the probability or magnitude of an earnings beat. A beat can still be sold if guidance, revenue quality, or forward demand disappoints; the market’s reaction will hinge more on the outlook than on a small consensus hurdle. Near term, ON’s November 2 release is the only immediate catalyst. MRVL’s December 1 report is too distant to treat the current revision spread as an event trade. The article’s historical hit-rate/backtest is not enough to establish expected return after entry price, option premium, and market expectations.

Contrarian read: a positive ESP may be most useful as a prompt to check the underlying revision breadth and guidance setup, not as a standalone long signal. Before taking risk, verify the estimate-change dates and breadth, revenue/EPS dispersion, current implied move, and management’s prior guidance trajectory. Over 1–3 months, weak guidance or a reversal in analyst revisions would negate the signal; over 6–18 months, semiconductor demand and inventory conditions matter more than one-quarter EPS surprise. Falsification for a bullish event thesis: ON misses the $0.88 consensus, or beats but guides below expectations and sells off; for MRVL, revisions turn negative ahead of its report.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not chase ON solely on the ESP statistic ahead of November 2. First compare the options-implied move with historical post-earnings moves and confirm whether estimate increases are broad-based; those data are missing here.
• If event exposure is required, consider a small, defined-risk ON position only where the option premium and implied move leave attractive reward versus the downside of a guidance-driven selloff. Avoid an outright recommendation without current price, volatility, and positioning data.
• Keep MRVL on a watchlist rather than pairing it against ON: the reporting dates differ by a month, and the article provides no evidence of a relative-value dislocation. Reassess revision breadth and guidance indicators closer to December 1.
• Treat a headline EPS beat as insufficient confirmation. Reduce or exit a bullish thesis if forward guidance weakens or the stock falls despite beating estimates.