Fewer Homebuyers Are Waiting for Rates to Fall, Even As More Expect them to Rise

In Veterans United's Q3 2026 survey of more than 900 prospective homebuyers, 57% expected mortgage rates to be higher in a year, up 12 percentage points from Q3 2025, while 32% said they would wait for rates to fall, down 7 points. Seventy-three percent planned to buy within the next year, unchanged from Q2 2026; 33% would wait for home prices to fall, down 6 points year over year. The survey indicates buyers are less inclined to delay purchases despite expectations of higher rates.

Analysis

Treat this as a weak signal of buyer urgency, not evidence of stronger purchasing power. The survey is from a lender with an interest in encouraging purchase activity, and stated intent can diverge sharply from closed transactions when affordability, credit qualification, or available listings bind. If urgency converts, purchase-focused lenders may see more applications, but higher rates still constrain loan size and can make that volume less valuable than the headline suggests.

The second-order beneficiary may be new-home builders: when resale inventory is tight or sellers resist concessions, buyers can substitute toward new construction, where builders can adjust incentives. That benefit is conditional; incentives protect sales at the cost of margin, and higher rates can worsen affordability for both new and existing homes. More urgency could also pull demand forward rather than create durable incremental demand, leaving a softer period later.

Near term, the survey is not a standalone catalyst. Over 1–3 months, purchase applications, pending sales, mortgage-rate moves, and builder incentives will show whether intent is converting. Over 6–18 months, the key issue is whether housing supply expands enough to absorb demand without renewed price pressure. The contrarian read is that fewer buyers waiting may reflect resignation to a persistently unaffordable market, not confidence or a demand breakout. The survey’s small, self-selected prospective-buyer sample does not establish broader market activity.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No directional housing trade on this survey alone. Treat it as a watch item, not a revision to transaction or earnings estimates.
• If purchase applications and pending sales strengthen for several readings while mortgage rates are stable and builder incentives do not widen, consider a small relative long in homebuilders versus mortgage-originator exposure: new construction may capture demand diverted from resale. Reassess if builder incentives rise or orders weaken.
• Track mortgage rates, resale inventory, pending and existing-home sales, purchase applications, and public-builder order cancellations/incentives over the next 1–3 months; these are more decision-useful than buyer intentions.
• Falsify the demand-resilience thesis if purchase applications or pending sales decline despite the survey signal, or if rates rise enough to weaken affordability. A sustained increase in inventory without transaction growth would also argue against the trade.