New FT Poll Shows: The Future of AI Could Be Good News for International Stocks

A Financial Times survey found 54% of economists expect AI to deliver significant economic growth and productivity gains over the next 10 years, potentially across many or nearly all G20 nations. Vanguard projects unhedged international stocks will outperform U.S. stocks over the next 30 years; its Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) holds 8,901 stocks across 43 countries and returned about 9.2% annualized over the past decade, below the S&P 500's cited 9.98% long-term average.

Analysis

The investable implication is a possible broadening of AI’s payoff—not proof that international equities will capture it. If AI raises productivity among adopters, benefits could accrue to labor-constrained businesses and domestic service sectors rather than only model developers; however, gains depend on adoption, competitive pass-through and local capital allocation. A survey of economists and a 30-year forecast are weak near-term earnings catalysts, and neither establishes that non-U.S. firms will retain the productivity surplus.

For relative returns, the more immediate drivers are starting valuations, sector composition, currency translation and U.S. mega-cap concentration—not AI diffusion alone. A weaker dollar would support unhedged international exposure in dollar terms, but a stronger dollar can erase local-market gains. VXUS also spans markets with very different growth, governance and currency risks; it is not a targeted AI-adoption bet.

Contrarian view: the case may be directionally right but is easy to overstate. Broad AI diffusion could lift GDP without improving listed-company margins if competition, wages or regulation capture the gains. Treat international outperformance as a long-horizon diversification thesis, not a conclusion implied by the survey. Over 1–3 months, the survey itself is unlikely to change earnings; over 6–18 months, watch reported productivity, margin and capex evidence among non-U.S. adopters. A sustained relative deterioration in ex-U.S. earnings or a sharp dollar rebound would challenge the case.

Key Decisions for Investors

• For portfolios materially concentrated in U.S. equities, consider phasing a modest relative allocation from SPY into VXUS rather than making an outright AI-driven rotation. This diversifies concentration and currency exposure; it is not a short-term catalyst trade.
• Do not buy VXUS solely on the 30-year forecast. Before increasing exposure, verify valuation and earnings-revision trends by region, index sector weights, and the portfolio’s existing currency risk; the article provides none of these.
• Use non-U.S. adopter productivity and margin evidence as the 6–18 month confirmation test. If adoption rises but margins and earnings revisions do not, the thesis may benefit economies without benefiting shareholders.
• Falsification/watch item: reassess the relative allocation if ex-U.S. earnings revisions persistently weaken versus U.S. revisions, or if dollar strength materially offsets local-market returns. A survey result alone is not a reason to add options or trade around a near-term event.