There Are Only a Handful of Nasdaq-100 Stocks That Yield Over 3%. Here's My Top Pick to Buy Now.

The article argues Mondelez is the most attractive Nasdaq-100 stock yielding more than 3%, citing its 10-year outperformance versus PepsiCo and Kraft Heinz and a valuation discount relative to Costco and Walmart. Mondelez generated a 3.3% revenue CAGR over the past five years, while earnings are projected to grow more than 9% annually from 2028 through 2030. Its $21 billion of liabilities are viewed as relatively manageable because most debt matures beyond five years, potentially making it less rate-sensitive than highly leveraged utilities.

Analysis

MDLZ is a cleaner defensive exposure than many yield-oriented alternatives because its category mix supports repeat purchase behavior while leaving more room for geographic and premiumization-led growth than mature North American food peers. The key earnings debate is not the dividend: it is whether pricing can remain positive as cocoa and other input-cost inflation normalizes without prompting volume elasticity. A favorable outcome would drive gross-margin recovery and multiple re-rating; a volume-led reversal would expose that the apparent valuation discount reflects a weaker organic-growth runway.

The more relevant comparison is MDLZ versus PEP and KHC, not versus expensive retail compounders. PEP carries greater North American beverage/snack execution and FX sensitivity, while KHC needs sustained volume and brand reinvestment progress to avoid another low-growth valuation trap. MDLZ also has meaningful emerging-market exposure, creating upside if local-currency consumer demand holds, but this makes reported results more vulnerable to dollar strength and geopolitical disruption than a purely domestic staples trade.

This is not a near-term headline catalyst and the article alone does not justify directional size. Over the next 1-3 months, monitor scanner volumes, cocoa futures, promotional intensity, and management commentary on price/mix; the next earnings print is the first investable validation point. Over 6-18 months, sustained positive volumes alongside easing commodity costs could produce the more durable upside, whereas a renewed cocoa spike or broad consumer trade-down would compress margins and undermine the defensive-premium thesis.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Watch, do not chase on this article: initiate MDLZ only after the next earnings release confirms positive volume growth and maintains full-year EPS guidance; target a 10-15% total-return setup over 6-12 months, with thesis invalidated by two consecutive quarters of volume contraction or a material guidance cut.
• Construct a market-neutral staples pair: long MDLZ / short KHC over 6-12 months, sized beta-neutral. The thesis is superior brand reinvestment and international growth; exit if KHC demonstrates sustained organic-volume acceleration exceeding MDLZ for two quarters.
• For a lower-beta relative-value expression, long MDLZ / short PEP is preferable only if the valuation discount is at least 15-20% on forward EV/EBIT versus PEP. Risk is a sharp reversal in USD or stronger-than-expected PEP beverage execution; reassess at earnings rather than using a fixed price stop.
• Set alerts for cocoa futures rising more than 20% from current levels and for a broad USD rally: either would pressure MDLZ gross-margin and translated-sales expectations before consensus estimates likely adjust.