Interim Report Q2 2026: Net sales increased by 19%

Q2 2026 net sales rose 19% to 20.2 MSEK (from 16.9 MSEK), while EBITDA increased 17% to 13.0 MSEK (from 11.1 MSEK). Profit after tax improved to 8.6 MSEK (from 8.8 MSEK), but recurring revenue slipped to 94.0% of net sales (from 99.5%) and EBITDA margin edged down to 64% (from 66%). FTDs decreased 3% to 17,075 (from 17,683), indicating some volume pressure despite the earnings growth.

Analysis

The key read-through is not the top-line beat; it is that growth is coming from better monetization rather than customer volume expansion. In a lead-gen / affiliate-style model, that usually supports revenue and EBITDA for a few quarters, but it also signals that the easiest gains may already be behind the business if underlying volume keeps slipping. The slight margin compression suggests operating leverage is not kicking in as cleanly as the headline sales growth implies, which tends to cap multiple expansion.

Second-order effects matter more than the print itself. If referred FTDs are the core acquisition metric, a low-single-digit decline can be absorbed near term, but it is a warning that traffic quality or paid acquisition economics may be under pressure; that usually hurts smaller competitors first because they have less traffic scale and weaker SEO/UA resilience. Any supplier tied to customer acquisition, performance marketing, or affiliate traffic should be watched for slower spend growth over the next 1-3 months.

The contrarian view is that the market may be underestimating how durable the recurring revenue base really is: 94% recurring is still high, but the mix deterioration versus the prior period means investors should demand proof that this is not a one-off uplift from pricing or mix. The thesis is falsified if the next quarterly update shows FTD stabilization and margin re-expansion back above 65%; otherwise, the risk is a gradual de-rating over 6-18 months as volume weakness catches up to reported revenue.

Key Decisions for Investors

• If this is a listed iGaming affiliate/lead-gen name, use any post-earnings strength to fade the move rather than chase it; the setup favors a 1-3 month short on valuation reset risk if FTDs keep drifting lower.
• Pair trade: long a higher-quality gaming operator/monetizer such as EVO.ST against short a weaker affiliate basket such as CTM.ST or RAKE.ST over the next 1-3 months; the spread should work if traffic weakness persists while monetization-only growth disappoints.
• Do not add on the print alone; wait for the next quarterly KPI set. Re-enter only if referred FTDs turn positive or EBITDA margin reclaims 65%+, otherwise treat this as a watchlist name, not a long.
• For event-driven risk, consider a short-dated put spread only if the stock rallies on the headline and implied vol stays cheap; stop out if recurring revenue share re-accelerates or management upgrades guidance on customer volume.