3 Stocks to Buy and Hold Even if the Stock Market Falls 10% in October

A 10% S&P 500 decline has occurred in roughly half of calendar years since 1980, but a drop compressed into one month is unusual; the article highlights P&G, Costco and TJX as consumer businesses with recurring demand that may support recovery, though none is immune to a broad sell-off. P&G reported more than $87 billion in FY2026 revenue and returned over $15 billion through dividends and buybacks; Costco's U.S. and Canada renewal rate reached 92.3%, with 84.1 million paid members and digital sales above $33 billion. TJX has recorded 34 consecutive years of comparable-sales growth, raised its full-year profit forecast and outlined a long-term goal of 7,500 stores.

Analysis

The useful distinction is demand durability versus stock-price protection: in a shock, all three can sell off as investors de-risk, while their relative earnings resilience may matter over the following quarters. The article’s “faster recovery” claim is not established by the operating facts cited; valuation, starting expectations, and the shock’s effect on employment and real incomes will drive recovery timing.

The strongest second-order support is for TJX if household budget pressure drives trade-down: it may capture share from full-price apparel and home retailers, while suppliers gain an outlet for excess branded inventory. That benefit reverses if vendors restrict off-price supply or consumers cut purchases outright. PG’s staples demand is steadier, but volume, mix, input costs, and currency—not dividend history alone—determine earnings protection. Costco’s renewal base and fees cushion results, yet do not eliminate exposure to membership growth, traffic, or a valuation reset. Walmart is a credible trade-down competitor and could take some of the same wallet share.

Near term (days), a sharp market decline can overwhelm these fundamentals. Over 1–3 months, earnings revisions and evidence of trade-down matter more than defensive labels. Over 6–18 months, store expansion at TJX and retention/fee trends at Costco are potential growth drivers, but execution and margins need verification.

Contrarian point: these are not necessarily bargains merely because demand is resilient. If investors crowd into perceived safety, multiple compression can offset stable earnings—especially for a high-expectation retailer. No valuation or relative-performance data are supplied, so avoid an unconditional entry.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Treat PG, COST, and TJX as selective earnings-resilience exposures, not crash hedges. Do not add solely because the broad market falls; check relative valuation and earnings revisions first.
• Watch for a market-led pullback in TJX as a potential staged long only if comparable-sales guidance remains intact and management confirms adequate branded inventory availability. Reassess or exit if comps weaken or profit guidance is cut; the thesis is trade-down share gain, not immunity from falling consumption.
• For PG, verify organic volume, pricing/mix, and input-cost commentary before treating its dividend record as evidence of downside protection. A sustained volume decline or margin pressure would falsify the defensive-earnings case.
• For COST, monitor renewal rates, paid-member growth, and fee-income trends alongside traffic. If these soften, the membership cushion may not offset weaker merchandise demand; avoid chasing the stock without a valuation check.
• On a broad sell-off, compare TJX and Walmart operating updates for evidence of who is actually capturing trade-down spending. A relative long in TJX is less attractive if Walmart takes share or TJX’s inventory advantage narrows.