Global trust in science falls below pre-pandemic levels, survey finds

Wellcome’s survey of more than 140,000 adults found that 72% reported at least some trust in science in 2025, down from 80% in 2020; strong trust fell to 32% from 43% during the pandemic. High trust was reported by 20% of respondents struggling financially versus 39% of those living comfortably, while 34% said they would immediately accept a recommended vaccine and 15% would avoid vaccination. Wellcome said the findings show associations, not direct causes; the article reports no specific market impact.

Analysis

The investable signal is not an immediate earnings shock; it is a higher risk that vaccine uptake becomes more politically and economically uneven. That can make demand less predictable for vaccine makers such as Merck and GSK, while increasing the chance of episodic catch-up demand when outbreaks trigger public-health campaigns. The latter is not automatically a net positive: outbreak-driven volumes may be short-lived and do not establish a material consolidated revenue effect. Verify product-level exposure and management commentary before underwriting it.

Over 1–3 months, watch US vaccination-rate data, public-health guidance and any state or federal funding response. Over 6–18 months, persistent erosion in uptake could raise outbreak frequency and pressure healthcare providers and public budgets, but the survey establishes association, not causation; it is not a sovereign-credit thesis. The more useful contrarian read is that distrust is concentrated among financially stressed households: affordability, access and local-provider credibility may matter more than broad scientific sentiment. That leaves room for targeted engagement to stabilize uptake.

There is no clear stock/bond collision or high-conviction sector trade on this evidence alone. A sharp repricing of vaccine makers on survey sentiment alone would likely overstate near-term earnings exposure; sustained declines in immunization coverage would be a more consequential catalyst.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate sector position: treat this as a monitoring signal, not a standalone short or long in healthcare or biotech.
• Track US and major-market vaccination coverage, outbreak counts, public procurement and product-level vaccine sales. Reassess Merck and GSK only if those indicators or company guidance show a persistent commercial effect.
• Watch for a policy response focused on access or affordability; credible funding and provider-led outreach could reverse uptake weakness and blunt the longer-term risk.
• Falsify the structural downside thesis if vaccination coverage stabilizes or improves and outbreaks recede without material changes to public-health funding; escalate concern if coverage continues falling alongside repeated outbreaks or guidance revisions.