Thanksgiving Travel: Which Airlines Mishandle the Most Bags and How to Protect Yours

Squaremouth’s analysis of 2025 U.S. DOT data found mishandled-baggage rates of 0.72% for United Airlines’ network, 0.66% for American Airlines’ network and 0.54% for Hawaiian Airlines; Allegiant had the lowest rate at 0.09%. Rates represent mishandled bags per 100 checked bags loaded. The release also offered baggage-protection tips and described possible travel-insurance coverage for eligible delay, loss or damage expenses.

Analysis

This is a weak, lagged operational signal—not an earnings catalyst. The rankings could modestly reinforce baggage-handling perceptions for UAL and AAL and differentiate JBLU and LUV during holiday booking, but a single-year mishandling rate does not establish a persistent service gap or quantify booking, loyalty, or cost impact. Scope also differs: UAL and AAL are reported as networks, while several peers are listed as airlines, limiting clean comparisons.

The second-order channel is operational rather than immediate revenue: a sustained gap could pressure airlines to spend on sorting, tracking, and ground-handler oversight, while persistent failures could erode loyalty at the margin. For Squaremouth, the more direct potential beneficiary is comparison-shopping demand for baggage coverage; the article is promotional, however, and supplies no conversion, premium, or claims data. Insurance exclusions and reimbursement limits may also blunt customer value.

Near term (Thanksgiving): reputational effects and customer complaints are plausible, but likely too small and noisy to trade absent evidence of booking shifts. Over 1–3 months, watch airline service metrics and baggage complaints; over 6–18 months, updated DOT data could show whether operational differences persist. The contrarian point is that the headline ranking may overstate a commercially meaningful competitive advantage: the underlying data are backward-looking and do not link mishandling to customer switching or financial outcomes. A sustained rise in complaints, adverse service guidance, or persistent deterioration in future DOT data would strengthen the bear case for the lower-ranked carriers; improvement would falsify it.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No standalone position in UAL, AAL, JBLU, or LUV on this release. The signal is low-impact, backward-looking, and lacks evidence of a material earnings or market-share effect.
• Treat UAL and AAL as watch items for holiday-period baggage complaints and subsequent service disclosures, not as automatic shorts; confirm persistence before acting.
• Monitor Squaremouth or broader travel-insurance marketplace data for quote-to-purchase conversion, baggage-related coverage demand, and claims experience. Without those metrics, do not infer a revenue benefit from the article.
• Reassess if upcoming DOT data or airline disclosures show a sustained service divergence, or if customer/booking indicators corroborate switching; improvement in complaints and handling metrics would invalidate the negative reputational thesis.