Brent Oil Is Back Above $100 as a Third Aircraft Carrier Heads to the Middle East

Oil markets face two potentially bullish supply-risk shocks: reports that a third U.S. aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East and China's cutoff of fuel exports. The developments could tighten regional fuel availability and raise geopolitical risk premia, though the durability of any price spike depends on events before the end of October. The news is likely to increase near-term volatility across crude, refined products and energy equities.