Michaels® State of the Holiday Season Report: Consumers Want Less Screen Time and More Meaning

A Morning Consult survey of 2,502 U.S. adults found 80% of parents seek screen-free holiday activities, while 78% of holiday celebrants say a $25 handmade gift is worth as much as or more than a $100 store-bought gift. The findings also show a preference for less commercial celebrations (65%) and personal sentiment over gift price (60%); Michaels is promoting DIY supplies, events and décor collections to serve those preferences. The survey was fielded Oct. 8–11, 2026, with a ±2 percentage-point margin of error.

Analysis

This is a weak directional read-through, not evidence of incremental holiday spending. The survey is retailer-sponsored and measures stated preferences; conversion into Michaels sales, basket size, and margins remains unverified. The commercial opportunity is more likely in affordable project inputs, décor components, and personalization than in consumers paying more for finished gifts. That may support traffic and add-on purchases, but low-ticket baskets and event execution costs could limit profit flow-through.

The second-order risk is timing: earlier buying can shift revenue into October/November without increasing season-wide demand, while making inventory and markdown mistakes visible sooner. DIY also competes with finished-gift purchases at retailers and marketplaces such as Target, Walmart, Amazon, and Etsy; it is not automatically category growth. For Michaels, the useful distinction is whether it captures the supplies spend or merely helps customers substitute away from higher-priced gifts.

Near term, the report is unlikely to justify a position on its own. Over the next 1–3 months, watch comparable sales, transaction/basket trends, seasonal inventory, and gross margin for evidence that stated intent converts. Over 6–18 months, sustained demand for personalization and hands-on leisure could benefit craft retail, but the survey does not establish durability. The thesis weakens if holiday sell-through is soft, promotions rise, or early demand is offset by weaker December sales.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No standalone trade on the survey: treat it as a low-confidence demand signal, not a forecast or verified sales catalyst for Michaels.
• Watch Michaels’ holiday trading updates and next reported results for comparable-sales growth, average basket/transactions, inventory levels, and gross-margin pressure. Strong sales accompanied by heavier discounting would not confirm attractive economics.
• Monitor October/November sell-through versus December demand. If early sales appear to pull purchases forward rather than lift the full season, avoid extrapolating an extended shopping window into higher annual revenue.
• Use craft and personalization demand as a watch item across Michaels, Target, Walmart, Amazon, and Etsy; verify whether consumers are buying project inputs or substituting toward lower-cost finished gifts before taking a relative-value position.