Wall Street’s big banks deliver mixed earnings. Executives bet the IPO lull won’t last

U.S. bank earnings were mixed: JPMorgan missed revenue and earnings for the first time in nearly three years, Wells Fargo revenue was $21.87B versus $22.31B consensus, while Goldman Sachs beat estimates and its equities revenue surged 72%. IPOs including Oura’s have been delayed, with executives and Renaissance Capital strategist Matt Kennedy describing delays rather than cancellations; Kennedy said 2026 remains on pace to exceed last year’s deal count and has already set a record for IPO proceeds. Executives cited valuation gaps and a rising-rate environment, while Kennedy said an end to the Iran war could lower oil prices and support deal activity.

Analysis

The earnings split is more useful as a read-through on revenue mix than as a verdict on bank quality. Goldman’s equity-trading strength can offset weaker FICC, but it also makes the beat vulnerable to normalization if volatility and client activity fade. JPMorgan’s miss alongside higher expenses makes expense control and the persistence of FICC weakness the key tests; one quarter alone does not establish a structural loss of share. The relative-value case is therefore conditional, not a simple “GS wins, JPM loses” call.

For dealmakers, postponed IPOs preserve potential future underwriting fees but push revenue recognition out and leave issuers exposed to a lower clearing valuation. The contrarian risk is treating a strong annual proceeds tally and a large pipeline as evidence of broad, near-term reopening: a few large offerings can lift totals while ordinary issuers continue to wait. Lower oil after a geopolitical de-escalation could help inflation and risk appetite, but rates and equity valuations—not oil alone—will determine whether the issuance window stays open. Over 1–3 months, watch IPO launches and pricing versus indicated ranges; over 6–18 months, a sustained pipeline conversion would support capital-markets franchises. Falsifiers: further IPO withdrawals or weak pricing, continued JPM expense growth/FICC weakness, or a sharp reversal in Goldman’s equities revenue.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Treat GS versus JPM as a monitored relative-value setup, not an immediate high-conviction pair. Consider a modest long GS / short JPM only if subsequent results confirm durable GS equities strength and JPM expense or FICC pressure; reduce or exit if GS trading revenue reverses or JPM shows expense discipline and revenue stabilization.
• Do not capitalize the reported IPO pipeline as near-term fee revenue. Track actual launches, postponements, and offer pricing over the next 1–3 months; broad conversion at resilient prices would be a positive catalyst for GS, JPM, and MS, while another wave of delays would invalidate the reopening thesis.
• Use WFC’s repeated revenue shortfalls as a watch item rather than a standalone short signal. Verify whether upcoming guidance or results point to persistent revenue weakness before taking exposure; earnings beats alone may not resolve that concern.
• For Oura, a postponed offering is a timing and valuation signal, not proof of deteriorating fundamentals. Reassess only when updated filing terms, valuation expectations, and investor demand are observable.