UPDATE: First Majestic Reports Q3 2026 Production Results, Announces Q3 Conference Call Details and Renewal of Share Repurchase Program

First Majestic produced 3.4 million silver ounces in Q3 2026, equal to 72% of its revised guidance midpoint, with a 12-day labour dispute at San Dimas contributing to lower production; gold output of 29,552 ounces was 75% of its guidance midpoint. Results differed across mines: San Dimas silver and gold production fell 41% and 26% year over year, while La Encantada silver output rose 68%. The company renewed its normal-course issuer bid, allowing purchases of up to 10 million shares—about 2% of shares outstanding—from October 14, 2026, through October 13, 2027; Jerritt Canyon remains on track for a planned H2 2027 restart.

Analysis

First Majestic (AG): operational risk outweighs the buyback headline

Thesis. The issue is not simply a weak quarter: San Dimas’ labor disruption exposes concentration in execution risk, while lower grades at Santa Elena and Los Gatos create a separate question about whether volume growth can translate into metal output. Sales modestly exceeding attributable production may also mean less flexibility if disruption persists; verify inventory movements in the November 5 results. La Encantada’s improvement provides a partial offset, but its grade-led recovery needs confirmation over multiple quarters.

Timing and catalysts. Near term, the production miss and retreating oil prices may pull in opposite directions for sentiment: softer energy can ease operating-cost pressure, but does not repair lost output. Over 1–3 months, the key catalysts are labor normalization and the Q3 financial release—especially realized prices, unit costs, cash flow, inventory, and any guidance change. Over 6–18 months, Santa Elena expansion and the planned Jerritt Canyon restart offer upside, but add execution and capital-allocation risk before they contribute production.

Contrarian read. The strike may prove temporary, and La Encantada’s higher throughput shows operational improvement is possible; a sharp selloff could overstate lasting damage. Conversely, the repurchase authorization is not a reliable price floor: the prior program bought substantially fewer shares than its permitted maximum, and the renewed authorization covers only about 2% of shares. The release does not establish valuation or funding capacity for the restart. Stantec and Metso exposure to this project is not enough, on these facts, to support a material read-through to either stock.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid adding to AG ahead of the November 5 results; use the call to confirm San Dimas labor status, inventory changes, and whether full-year guidance is maintained or revised.
• For a tactical relative-value hedge, short AG against long silver exposure (for example, SLV), sized modestly: the thesis is company-specific execution risk rather than a bearish silver view. Reassess or close if labor normalizes and management demonstrates a credible path to guidance; silver-price moves can still dominate the pair.
• Treat the renewed buyback as optional support, not a catalyst or downside floor. Reconsider only after checking actual repurchases, cash flow, and the capital required for Jerritt Canyon.
• Track Santa Elena and Los Gatos grades/recoveries alongside throughput. Persistent grade deterioration or another guidance cut would falsify the temporary-disruption case; sustained throughput and stable grades would weaken the bearish thesis.