These 2 Metrics Are Flashing Green for Bitcoin. So Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Finally Over?

Bitcoin rebounded 47% from its July 1 cyclical low after falling 53% from its prior October peak, and it moved back above its 50-week moving average on September 20. Historically, an upside cross of that average has signaled that Bitcoin's cycle low has passed 75% of the time, rising to 100% when 2020 is excluded. The article also cites midterm-year seasonality, with the S&P 500 historically averaging gains of 3.0% in October and 2.7% in November, as a potential supportive risk-on backdrop for Bitcoin, while cautioning that the asset remains highly volatile.

Analysis

The signal quality is weak: election-season equity seasonality and a single long-horizon moving-average crossover are highly overlapping risk-appetite indicators, not independent evidence of a durable Bitcoin regime change. The more investable near-term mechanism is whether spot-ETF creations and stablecoin liquidity confirm price strength; absent those flows, a rally driven by systematic trend-following can reverse quickly when real yields or the dollar rise.

For public equities, the cleanest beta expression is not NFLX or NVDA, whose inclusion is promotional and has no causal linkage to Bitcoin. COIN offers the highest operational sensitivity through trading volumes and retail engagement, while MSTR adds amplified BTC exposure through leverage; both can outperform BTC in a sustained risk-on phase but carry materially greater drawdown and dilution/financing risk. Miners such as CLSK, RIOT, and MARA are a less attractive first-leg expression because post-halving economics make their equity returns dependent on hash-price, power costs, and capital-market access rather than BTC direction alone.

Over the next 1-3 months, the key falsifier is a BTC break back below its 50-week average accompanied by net spot-ETF outflows for two consecutive weeks; that would indicate the technical move failed rather than merely consolidated. Over 6-18 months, the bull case requires institutional allocation breadth and declining real-rate pressure; a renewed Fed-tightening impulse, stronger USD, or adverse stablecoin/market-structure regulation would compress crypto multiples well before any change to Bitcoin's long-run supply narrative.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No action in NFLX, NVDA, or GETY on this item; there is no identifiable earnings or valuation transmission mechanism from Bitcoin technicals to these names.
• Watch-list long COIN versus short a broad fintech proxy (ARKF or PYPL) only after confirmation of two weeks of positive spot-Bitcoin ETF net flows and rising COIN trading-volume disclosures; target a 10-15% relative gain over 1-3 months, with exit if BTC closes below its 50-week average.
• For direct crypto risk, prefer a staged BTC or IBIT allocation rather than miners: initiate one-third on confirmed ETF-flow strength, add only if BTC holds the 50-week average through a weekly close, and cap thesis risk at a 12-15% BTC drawdown from entry.
• Avoid initiating MARA/RIOT/CLSK solely on the technical breakout. Reassess only if hash-price improves alongside BTC and miners demonstrate no further upward revision to capex or equity issuance; these are 6-18 month operating-leverage trades, not clean seasonal-beta vehicles.