Use this SpaceX options strategy to play the next Starship flight, set for Sept. 15, Jeff Kilburg says

SpaceX’s SPCX stock is still ~35% below the post–June 12 IPO high ($225), despite reclaiming the IPO print ($150) after trading as low as $104.83. The article highlights a Q2 revenue beat ($7.81B, +92%), Starlink at ~12M subscribers, and an FCC-targeted Starship Flight 14 date of Sept. 15 (first fully orbital attempt), supporting a renewed AI/constellation narrative. Wall Street price targets are raised/maintained (e.g., Oppenheimer to $280; J.P. Morgan at $240; Bernstein modeling AI revenue to $115B by 2027 from $24.6B in 2026). The proposed defined-risk options setup ahead of the Sept. 9 unlock and Flight 14 is a bullish risk reversal: sell the 9/18/2026 $140 put for $2.15 and buy the $160 call for $2.50 (net debit $0.35 / $35 per lot), with max loss limited to the $35 premium.

Analysis

This is a classic case where the market is still pricing a financing/lockup story while the real driver is industrial optionality. If launch cadence improves, the value isn’t in the next quarter of revenue; it’s in collapsing the time-to-deploy of the satellite fleet and turning a capital sink into a higher-velocity cash engine. That creates a second-order beneficiary in NVDA only if the compute stack is real and recurring; otherwise the AI narrative is just a multiple-supporting overlay, not an earnings bridge.

The near-term setup is mostly event vol, not fundamentals. A share unlock is only dangerous if the stock is already fragile and the marginal holders are forced sellers, but the bigger downside catalyst is a flight slip or anomaly that reopens the “capex hole” narrative and compresses the multiple back toward the low end of the post-IPO range. Conversely, a clean orbital attempt can force systematic re-rating because positioning appears lighter than the upside story, and the current IV still doesn’t look like it fully pays for that binary.

Contrarian view: consensus may be overpaying for the first successful test and underpaying execution risk after it. One successful flight does not prove manufacturing cadence, regulatory tolerance, or constellation economics; those are 6-18 month questions. If the next update does not show measurable cadence improvement and real revenue conversion, the move can fade quickly once the event passes.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy SPCX Sep/Oct call spread on weakness post-unlock rather than chasing spot; prefer defined-risk convexity over naked calls. Target 2-4x payoff if the flight window clears and shares reclaim the prior trading range; invalidate if SPCX loses the IPO print and fails to stabilize above that level.
• Avoid short puts unless you explicitly want assignment below the IPO level; the premium is not enough compensation for a flight-delay or anomaly gap-down. If used, cap risk with a put spread, not a naked short.
• Treat NVDA as a conditional second-order long only if SpaceX/KPI disclosures start turning the AI-stack narrative into verifiable capex orders. Until then, do not buy NVDA on the headline alone; wait for evidence of recurring GPU demand or a broader AI infra rerate.
• Set a hard watch item for the flight date and any slip beyond September expiration: if the launch moves, abandon the bullish event trade and reassess. The thesis is speed/cadence, not just one launch.