Not IonQ. Not Rigetti. This Quantum Computing Stock Could Be the Next to Soar.

D-Wave is expanding commercial adoption through Shionogi quantum-assisted drug-discovery research and a planned applications partnership with LG CNS, while a September 2026 U.S. Department of Commerce agreement provides access to up to $100 million in CHIPS and Science Act funding. SkyWater will support semiconductor-process development and manufacturing under a multi-year agreement. The article cites an average analyst target near $35, implying about 225% upside, but flags early-stage execution risk and a roughly 307x price-to-sales ratio; Q3 results are expected Nov. 10.

Analysis

The key underwriting question is whether optimization pilots convert into recurring, material customer revenue—not whether D-Wave can attract demonstrations or partnerships. A competition result and an integration relationship improve credibility, but neither establishes production deployment, customer economics, or repeatable sales. Quantum annealing may have a defensible niche in optimization while remaining less substitutable for broad, gate-model workloads; that narrows the addressable-market claim rather than validating a general quantum-computing premium.

Near term, the Nov. 10 report is the main catalyst: scrutinize commercial revenue, customer concentration, bookings/backlog definitions, cash burn, and evidence that deployments are expanding beyond pilots. The cited Commerce support is “up to” $100 million, so verify eligibility, disbursement timing, milestones, and whether it offsets cash R&D needs; do not capitalize the headline amount as secured funding. Over 6–18 months, LG CNS could lower enterprise adoption friction, while the SkyWater agreement may support supply continuity—but SkyWater’s financial benefit is unquantified absent volume or revenue disclosures.

At the stated extreme sales multiple, small execution misses can drive sharp multiple compression, but scarce-float/quantum enthusiasm creates squeeze risk for outright shorts. Contrarian point: the narrative may be early, yet partnership announcements and research recognition are weak proxies for monetization. Thesis improves with repeat deployments and accelerating commercial revenue; it weakens if customer metrics stall, cash use outruns resources, or funding proves conditional/delayed.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid chasing QBTS ahead of earnings; use the Nov. 10 release to test commercial conversion rather than treating announcements as booked demand.
• For an existing high-beta exposure, consider reducing or hedging QBTS into the event. A defined-risk put spread is preferable to an outright short if options liquidity and pricing are acceptable; reassess after the report.
• Make any bearish follow-through conditional on flat or slowing commercial revenue/customer expansion, weaker forward commentary, or rising cash burn without confirmed funding disbursement. Those are thesis triggers, not established facts.
• Treat SKYT as a watch item, not an automatic read-through: seek disclosed production volumes, contract economics, or material backlog contribution before positioning on D-Wave-related upside.