Here are Friday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, SpaceX, CoreWeave, Deckers, Unusual Machines & more

Friday’s Wall Street calls were mixed, with upgrades and bullish initiations across companies including Natera, Guardant Health, and Allegion, alongside downgrades for Deckers, Norwegian Cruise Line, and Nvidia. PhillipCapital raised its SpaceX target to $250 from $75 and increased FY26 and FY27 revenue estimates by 56% and 201%, respectively; Morgan Stanley cut CoreWeave’s target to $70 from $99, citing financing uncertainty. Allegion’s target rose to $200 from $164 after stronger-than-expected 3Q26 results and guidance, while CBOE was named a top pick after regulatory approval cleared a hurdle for its prediction markets.

Analysis

The useful signal is dispersion in execution risk, not the volume of rating changes. In AI infrastructure, contracted demand is not the same as financed, deployed capacity: CoreWeave’s funding uncertainty could delay delivery and weaken near-term demand visibility across the compute chain. NVIDIA’s bundling may defend share, but can also pressure pricing and make reported demand less informative about underlying competitive strength. Watch CoreWeave’s financing terms and conversion of contracted capacity into active capacity before treating either company’s analyst narrative as confirmed.

Cboe’s regulatory clearance creates option value, not yet a proven earnings stream; launch timing, trading volume, and economics per contract are the relevant proof points. In diagnostics, Natera and Guardant’s growth cases ultimately depend on clinical validation, payer coverage, and adoption—screening population size alone does not establish revenue conversion.

Near term, DECK’s lowered outlook raises inventory and promotional-risk questions; a recovery thesis needs evidence of improved sell-through, not just a later athletic-market rebound. NCLH’s Europe exposure makes booking trends and itinerary changes a nearer-term demand test. Across the article, analyst targets and forecasts are opinions, not independent confirmation; the SpaceX revenue revisions in particular should be treated as highly assumption-sensitive. Overall, this is a low-conviction, stock-specific setup rather than a sector-wide signal.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Underweight or avoid adding to CRWV until financing visibility improves and disclosures show contracted capacity converting to active deployments. Reassess if funding terms stabilize and deployment milestones are met; the key risk to this stance is rapid financing resolution. Do not infer that CRWV weakness automatically makes NVDA a short, given NVIDIA’s potential to defend share through its supply chain and bundling.
• Treat CBOE as a catalyst watch, not an immediate earnings-revision trade: scale in only as launch timing, participation, and trading economics become observable. The thesis weakens if launch is delayed, volumes disappoint, or regulatory conditions constrain the product.
• Keep DECK on an underweight/avoid list pending evidence of sell-through and guidance stabilization; improving HOKA demand and reduced promotional pressure would falsify the downside setup. For NCLH, consider defined-risk downside exposure only if forward bookings or cancellations confirm weakening Europe demand; monitor booking data rather than extrapolating geopolitical risk alone.
• Do not buy Natera or Guardant solely on the analyst growth narratives. Track payer coverage, clinical evidence, and adoption metrics; absent those, the claimed screening opportunity is not yet a dependable earnings catalyst.