From coast to corridor: What data from millions of commercial vehicles reveals about the health of the U.S. supply chain

Geotab's analysis of roughly 12% of U.S. commercial traffic indicates supply-chain resilience: regional trucking trips rose 3.8% and vehicle miles traveled increased 5.4% across Q4 2025 through Q2 2026, while long-haul freight remained stable. Last-mile delivery volumes increased across all four studied cities as miles per trip fell, indicating denser and more efficient routing; Los Angeles delivery trips were nearly 40% above the Q4 baseline and Atlanta last-mile trips rose 24.5% in Q2. Port activity at Los Angeles/Long Beach was about 12% higher year over year in its strongest 2026 month, though flat drayage-truck activity suggests rail absorbed the incremental volume.

Analysis

The investable signal is not broad freight acceleration but a mix shift toward shorter-haul, denser delivery networks. That favors parcel and contract-logistics operators with urban density and route-optimization leverage—UPS, FedEx, GXO and potentially Amazon—over truckload carriers whose earnings depend on long-haul spot rates and trailer utilization. Lower miles per stop can improve labor and fuel productivity, but it can also cap revenue per package for carriers priced partly on distance; UPS/FedEx need yield and surcharge discipline to convert volume into margin.

The apparent resilience should not be extrapolated into a trucking-cycle recovery. Normalizing activity per active vehicle can show fleet utilization improvement even while absolute fleet counts, freight rates, and carrier revenue remain weak; it is particularly vulnerable to private-fleet insourcing by retailers. For publicly traded truckload names, the decisive 1-3 month confirmation remains DAT/Cass spot-rate improvement, tender-rejection rates, and management commentary on contract repricing—not telematics trip counts.

The port-to-rail substitution is a more actionable structural read. If container growth is being absorbed by intermodal, railroads with Western port exposure—UNP and BNSF parent BRK.B—gain volume without the labor and equipment intensity of drayage, while J.B. Hunt’s intermodal franchise is a direct beneficiary if domestic container demand follows. A sustained shift would pressure drayage-heavy and short-haul truckload capacity, though congestion, rail service deterioration, or chassis shortages could rapidly force volume back onto trucks.

Contrarian view: the data may be detecting inventory repositioning and localized fulfillment-node expansion rather than end-demand strength. That distinction matters because retailers can raise regional miles and delivery trips during a cautious consumer environment while simultaneously reducing long-haul replenishment. Treat this as a relative-value signal, not a reason to add cyclical beta before retail sales, inventories-to-sales, and carrier pricing data corroborate it.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a 3-6 month relative-value position: long JBHT / short an equal-dollar basket of KNX and WERN. Target a 10-15% relative return if intermodal volume and pricing improve; exit if JBHT intermodal volumes fail to turn positive or rail service metrics deteriorate.
• Maintain a modest long UNP versus short XTN for 6-12 months rather than a directional transportation overweight. The thesis is modal substitution and operating leverage; invalidate on evidence that port container growth is not converting to rail carloads or if truckload spot rates materially outperform rail pricing.
• Do not chase UPS or FDX on this signal alone. Add only after the next earnings cycle confirms positive domestic package volume together with stable revenue per piece and margin guidance; volume-driven growth without yield would be margin-dilutive.
• Use DAT spot rates, Cass Freight Index pricing, SONAR tender rejections, and U.S. retail inventory/sales data as a 30-90 day confirmation dashboard. If tender rejections remain depressed and inventory/sales rises, favor the contrarian outcome: avoid truckload cyclicals despite improving regional activity.