This Venture Capitalist Thinks Solana Will Surpass Ethereum During the Next Bull Market Cycle. Here's Why He's Wrong.

Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani predicts Solana could surpass Ethereum in market capitalization this market cycle, but the article considers that unlikely: as of Oct. 24, Ethereum was worth about $288 billion versus Solana’s $60 billion, leaving Solana needing to gain roughly 4.8x relative to Ethereum. Solana leads on throughput (over 1,000 TPS versus Ethereum’s 15–30) and 30-day fee revenue ($26 million versus $17 million), while Ethereum leads in TVL ($49 billion versus $6 billion) and stablecoin market cap ($144 billion versus $16 billion).

Analysis

The investable distinction is not throughput versus throughput; it is whether activity converts into durable economic capture. Solana’s higher recent fee take is a flow metric, while Ethereum’s larger stablecoin base and DeFi deposits are installed-base measures. The former can attract developers and incremental users; the latter can create switching costs and settlement-network effects. Neither one-month fees nor a prominent investor’s forecast establishes persistent revenue or token value capture, and fee comparisons should be checked for incentives, activity mix, and cycle effects.

Near term, treat a “flip” narrative as a sentiment catalyst, not a fundamental base case: the relative valuation hurdle is large, and the article supplies no positioning or valuation data to judge how much optimism is already priced. Over 1–3 months, watch relative performance alongside changes in stablecoin balances, TVL, and recurring fee activity—not TPS alone. Over 6–18 months, the key risk to Ethereum’s moat is actual migration of applications and settlement flows; the counter-risk for Solana is that episodic activity fails to become sticky liquidity. JPMorgan’s stablecoin experimentation supports the broader use case, but does not establish that JPMorgan uses or prefers either network. A sustained Solana gain in durable liquidity and activity would weaken the relative-value case; flat or declining adoption metrics would reinforce it.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid treating a Solana market-cap flip as a base-case trade. The relative growth hurdle is substantial, while the article does not provide evidence that institutional settlement or liquidity is migrating at scale.
• For a crypto-capable book seeking a relative-value expression, consider a modest, market-neutral long Ethereum / short Solana position only after checking current relative valuation, funding, liquidity, and positioning. Scale in rather than chase a headline-driven move; the thesis is relative network durability, not an outright call on crypto prices.
• Set thesis checkpoints over the next 1–3 months: compare stablecoin balances, TVL, and recurring fee activity across networks. Reduce or exit the relative position if Solana shows sustained gains in these measures alongside developer and application migration; TPS leadership alone is insufficient confirmation.
• No direct JPM trade follows from the article. Treat JPMorgan’s experimentation as sector context, not evidence of network-specific revenue exposure; revisit only if the company identifies material deployment, transaction volumes, or economics tied to a particular settlement network.