AI solves overtourism’s ‘concentration problem’ by helping people find hidden gems, says Klook cofounder Ethan Lin

Asian travel demand is increasingly experience-led, with Trip.com’s highest-priced $200,000-per-person package selling out in 17 seconds and concert, NBA and F1 tickets selling almost immediately. Klook argues overtourism is driven by visitor concentration rather than total volumes; 57% of surveyed Gen Z and millennial Asian travelers have used AI to discover destinations or experiences. Travel platforms and hospitality operators are using AI, influencer marketing and events to redirect tourism toward lesser-known locations and increase spending through premium trips and workcations.

Analysis

TCOM has the clearest monetization path because itinerary generation and event-led travel can increase conversion into higher-margin packaged inventory, not merely add search traffic. The key operating leverage is supplier mix: hotels, attractions, rail and premium tours carry materially better economics than commoditized air tickets. Over the next 1-3 quarters, investors should look for rising take rate, international hotel room-nights and reduced sales-and-marketing expense per transaction; without those metrics, AI-discovery adoption is a product narrative rather than an earnings catalyst.

For MLCO, experiential programming is strategically valuable only if it lifts midweek occupancy, length of stay and non-gaming spend without requiring unsustainably high artist, marketing or comp costs. A more differentiated resort offering can shift Macau competition away from pure VIP/mass-market gaming reinvestment, potentially protecting property-level margins; however, it also raises the fixed-cost hurdle and leaves MLCO exposed if Chinese discretionary travel softens. The near-term market reaction should be limited, while a 6-18 month rerating requires evidence that non-gaming revenue is growing faster than promotional allowances and that Macau GGR share is stable or improving.

MA is a modest second-order beneficiary from cross-border card-present spend and premium travel purchases, but the incremental upside is likely too diffuse to move estimates. The contrarian issue across travel platforms is that AI can reduce distribution power: if consumers use general-purpose assistants to compare destinations and suppliers directly, OTAs may face higher supplier bidding and lower traffic monetization. The better signal is not destination discovery volume, but whether TCOM retains customer ownership at checkout and expands attach rates across lodging, activities and payments.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Watch for a long TCOM entry around the next earnings print if management shows sequential improvement in outbound hotel/attraction bookings, take rate and marketing efficiency; target a 10-15% relative move versus KWEB over 3-6 months. Falsify if adjusted EBITDA margin falls despite transaction growth, indicating AI-led discovery is raising CAC or shifting mix toward low-margin inventory.
• Use a 3-6 month pair: long TCOM / short a broad China internet proxy such as KWEB only after confirmation of accelerating international and packaged-travel revenue. This isolates travel-share and margin-expansion exposure from broad China beta; exit if Chinese outbound travel indicators or TCOM room-night growth decelerate for two consecutive reporting periods.
• Maintain MLCO as a watch rather than a fresh directional trade. Upgrade to long only if Macau monthly GGR, MLCO market share and property-level non-gaming revenue demonstrate that experiential investment is producing incremental spend; downside risk is a margin squeeze from entertainment and promotional expense before occupancy gains materialize.
• Do not add MA solely on this theme. Treat sustained APAC cross-border volume growth and stable yield as confirmation for an existing core position; a deterioration in cross-border volume or accelerated wallet/account-to-account payment substitution would negate the travel-spend benefit.