Earnings Mean Reversion: When Estimates Snap Back

Consensus 2026 S&P 500 earnings-growth forecasts have risen to roughly 24% from about 15% in January. Goldman estimates 2026 operating EPS of approximately $340 and 2027 EPS of about $385, with both projections nearly 50% above the long-term earnings trend. The revisions signal a materially stronger expected profit outlook, though they also raise the bar for future earnings delivery.