Joby Aviation Stock Is Down 54% This Year. Here's Why I'd Buy It Before 2027.

Joby Aviation shares have lost more than half their value this year amid high cash burn, dilution risk, rising operating expenses, FAA-certification uncertainty and a high valuation. The company expects $115 million-$125 million of revenue this year, aided by Blade Air Mobility, while planned target Resonant Sciences contributes more than $100 million in trailing revenue; analysts project nearly $500 million in revenue by 2028. Joby plans to begin operations in 11 states in 2026 and could carry paying passengers as early as 2027, but the investment case remains highly speculative given continued losses and regulatory execution risk.

Analysis

JOBY is transitioning from a pure-duration eVTOL option into a conglomerated aviation/defense cash-burn story, which may reduce binary certification risk but complicates valuation. Acquired revenue is lower quality than aircraft-platform revenue: the market is likely to value Blade-like service revenue and defense sales at modest multiples while continuing to capitalize eVTOL R&D at a steep discount until certification milestones are independently verified. The key near-term question is not top-line growth but whether acquired operating cash flow materially extends runway and lowers the probability of another dilutive equity raise.

Over the next 1-3 months, FAA milestone disclosures, manufacturing-rate evidence, and cash-burn guidance matter more than passenger-service announcements. Pre-certification operations can improve regulator familiarity and operational data, but they do not resolve the central commercial constraints: aircraft utilization, battery-cycle economics, pilot availability, insurance, and premium-route demand. A delay in type certification by even 12 months would likely force a material reduction in terminal-value assumptions because fixed engineering and production overhead continue while the revenue ramp shifts right.

The contrarian positive is that defense and existing aviation-service assets can create a more durable funding bridge than investors currently assign, particularly if autonomous or dual-use technology attracts government contracts. The contrarian negative is that adding businesses may mask rather than solve the cash-flow problem; unless management discloses segment margins, backlog quality, and incremental working-capital needs, headline revenue growth should not support multiple expansion. Certification progress that does not coincide with sharply improving liquidity runway is not a sufficient bullish catalyst.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain JOBY as a small, catalyst-driven watch position rather than a core long until the next earnings release provides segment-level cash burn, pro forma liquidity, and 2027 capex guidance. Accumulate only after a certification milestone if cash runway remains at least 24 months without assumed equity issuance.
• For a high-risk event trade, buy a limited notional JOBY call spread dated 6-9 months beyond the next major FAA certification decision rather than common stock. Target at least 2.5:1 payoff; the thesis is falsified by a certification-timeline slip, increased annual cash burn, or a discounted equity financing.
• Avoid treating reported revenue growth as evidence of eVTOL commercialization. Set an alert for disclosure of paid-flight unit economics, aircraft utilization, and contribution margin; absent those data, revenue acquisitions are more likely to cap valuation upside than re-rate JOBY.
• Consider a relative-value hedge of long JOBY catalyst optionality versus short a broad long-duration innovation proxy such as ARKX or ARKK, sized beta-neutral. This isolates certification and execution upside while limiting sensitivity to renewed rate-driven multiple compression.