These 2 Computer and Technology Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

ASML's Most Accurate EPS estimate of $13.38 is 6.30% above the $12.59 consensus estimate ahead of its October 14, 2026 earnings release, while the company holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Twilio's $1.48 Most Accurate EPS estimate is 2.28% above its $1.45 consensus estimate ahead of October 29 earnings, also with a #3 rank. The positive Earnings ESP readings suggest both technology stocks could deliver quarterly EPS beats, although the article provides no company-specific operating update or guidance change.

Analysis

This is weak standalone signal: a small dispersion between a late analyst estimate and consensus does not establish that either company’s revenue, gross margin, or forward guide is mispriced. For ASML, the equity reaction will be governed less by the reported EPS print than by order intake, backlog conversion, customer fab-utilization commentary, and the timing/mix of high-NA EUV shipments. A beat driven by shipment timing or favorable tax/FX would be insufficient to support a durable rerating; conversely, a bookings reset would pressure the entire semiconductor-capex chain, including ASM International (ASMI), BE Semiconductor (BESI), and KLA (KLAC).

TWLO’s setup is similarly more dependent on durable net-revenue retention, messaging-volume growth, Segment adoption, and operating-margin progression than a modest EPS beat. The company can exceed earnings through expense restraint while still disappointing growth investors if communications API pricing or enterprise-seat demand softens. Competitive read-through should focus on CPaaS pricing and share trends at Bandwidth (BAND), Sinch, and privately held MessageBird rather than treating an earnings surprise as evidence of an improving industry cycle.

Near term, avoid chasing either name solely into results: implied volatility and positioning relative to the unverified estimate dispersion are required before an event trade is justified. Over the next 1-3 months, ASML has asymmetric downside if management defers tool-recognition or reduces its 2027 demand confidence; TWLO needs guidance acceleration to overcome its history of multiple sensitivity to growth deceleration. The contrarian view is that the market may already expect beats, making forward KPIs—not headline EPS—the relevant catalyst.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No directional pre-earnings position based solely on this signal. Add an alert to compare ASML implied move and option skew with its prior eight earnings moves 5-7 trading days before results; consider a defined-risk long premium trade only if implied volatility prices below realized event volatility and orders/backlog indicators remain intact.
• For existing ASML exposure, hedge event risk with a 1-month put spread rather than reduce structurally: exit the hedge if order intake and 2027 revenue commentary confirm demand visibility; retain or expand it if bookings miss consensus or high-NA delivery timing slips.
• Use ASML as a semiconductor-capex read-through, not an isolated EPS trade: a negative bookings/guidance outcome supports a 1-3 month tactical underweight in ASMI/BESI versus SOXX, while a verified order acceleration favors reversing that hedge.
• For TWLO, wait for evidence of growth quality—net-revenue retention stabilization, revenue guidance above consensus, and sustained margin expansion—before going long. If EPS exceeds estimates but next-quarter revenue guidance or retention deteriorates, favor a 1-3 month short TWLO versus long IGV as the cleaner multiple-compression expression.