Dell'Oro forecasts worldwide RAN revenues to grow at ~1% CAGR through 2030, after a nearly $9B revenue decline from 2021–2024 and stabilization in 2025. The market saw two consecutive quarters of YoY growth in 1Q 2026, with ongoing support from 5G plus AI RAN, Cloud RAN, private wireless, and early 6G deployments. Dell'Oro also expects RAN spending to track wireless capex at roughly 20–25% and notes risks from potential excess capacity and muted carrier revenue growth.
The key signal is not that RAN is growing, but that it is no longer shrinking. In a market with only low-single-digit growth, the equity opportunity is mostly a dispersion trade: software-defined and disaggregated infrastructure vendors can take share even if the addressable pie barely expands, while legacy integrated radio suppliers face continued pricing pressure and weaker operating leverage.
The second-order winner set is broader than the obvious handset/network names. Cloud-RAN and AI-RAN should incrementally support server, switching, timing, and transport content, which is modestly constructive for DELL-style infrastructure exposure and more directly for optical/backhaul beneficiaries; by contrast, traditional RAN OEMs likely see margin compression as carrier budgets shift toward more modular architectures. A flat capex backdrop also means any “AI traffic” upside has to come from carrier monetization, not traffic growth alone, which is a high bar.
Consensus risk is overreading stabilization as a new cycle. If carrier revenue growth stays muted, operators will keep funding replacement capex rather than true expansion, and that caps the multiple expansion case for the whole telecom equipment complex. The thesis breaks if wireless capex re-accelerates above the expected spend share, or if 6G/Cloud-RAN trials turn into measurable order books over the next 1-3 quarters.
AI-powered research, real-time alerts, and portfolio analytics for institutional investors.
Overall Sentiment
neutral
Sentiment Score
0.10
Ticker Sentiment
