A Stock Market Crash Is Coming By the End of 2027, According to Some Economists. Here Are 2 Stocks to Buy Before That Happens

The article recommends AbbVie and Amgen as potential defensive holdings amid economists’ forecasts of a possible downturn and recession by the end of 2027. AbbVie returned to top-line growth after Humira’s U.S. patent expiration, acquired Apogee Therapeutics for $10.9 billion in cash, and has raised its dividend for 54 consecutive years. Amgen reported Q2 revenue up 10% year over year to $10.1 billion and non-GAAP EPS up 4% to $6.29, while facing price-negotiation and patent-loss headwinds; its forward dividend yield is 2.5%.

Analysis

Portfolio read-through: The defensive case is about demand stability, not immunity from equity drawdowns. A recession may leave prescription volumes relatively resilient, but it would not prevent multiple compression if rates rise or risk appetite contracts. Drug pricing, payer access and government negotiation are structural earnings risks and may matter more than near-term GDP. Dividend records likewise do not cap downside; they can amplify sensitivity to bond yields when investors treat the shares as income substitutes.

Relative setup: ABBV appears to have the cleaner near-term earnings visibility, while AMGN carries more exposure to ongoing product erosion and a potentially valuable but clinically unproven MariTide opportunity. That makes a relative-value comparison more defensible than buying either simply as a recession hedge. However, the article supplies no valuation, estimate revisions, trial timing or balance-sheet detail; it does not establish that ABBV is attractively priced or that AMGN’s risks are mispriced. The acquired pipeline asset is also a development option, not yet an earnings offset.

Catalysts and falsifiers: Over 1–3 months, monitor prescription trends, payer/access updates and guidance for evidence that revenue resilience is translating into estimates. Over 6–18 months, clinical data and launch execution could reprice pipeline expectations. The relative thesis weakens if AMGN’s core-product erosion stabilizes better than expected, MariTide data materially de-risk the opportunity, or ABBV’s growth products disappoint. A sharp rise in real yields could hurt both regardless of operating performance.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not add either name solely as a forecast-based recession hedge; treat both as defensive equity exposures, not crash protection. Size against portfolio drawdown and rate risk.
• Watch a market-neutral long ABBV / short AMGN pair rather than an outright sector call, but initiate only after checking relative valuation, consensus estimate revisions and the pair’s recent spread. Reassess if AMGN’s erosion moderates or ABBV growth-product estimates roll over.
• Track ABBV growth-product demand and acquired-asset clinical milestones, plus AMGN’s product-level sales, pricing exposure and MariTide data. Cut the relative thesis if those indicators reverse; avoid assigning value to pipeline claims before verifiable trial evidence.