Gold price will approach $5,000/oz in 2026, $5,300/oz in 2027 on ‘uncertainty, de-dollarization, and debasement concern' – RBC

RBC’s Christopher Louney says gold’s recent move is being driven by renewed geopolitical instability and de-dollarization concerns, with worries that the U.S. dollar could be debased. He argues gold is positioned to resume a trend higher, targeting a push back above $5,000/oz.

Analysis

This is less a simple commodity call than a bet on reserve diversification and negative real-carry assets losing credibility. The clean winners are bullion-linked exposures and high-quality royalty/streaming names because they participate in upside without the operating-cost inflation that usually shows up late in a gold cycle. By contrast, high-cost miners and jewelry retailers are the weak links: if the move is narrative-driven rather than demand-led, their margins can lag even as the metal price rises.

Near term, the key catalyst path is through real yields and the dollar, not geopolitics alone. If 10-year real rates stay contained or fall 25-50 bps over the next 1-3 months, gold can keep grinding higher even without a fresh shock; if the dollar re-accelerates, the move should stall quickly. In a risk-off tape, gold can briefly trade like a liquidity asset, so the first leg higher may be choppy rather than linear.

The consensus may be underestimating how sticky central-bank buying can be, but overestimating the odds of a straight line to very large price levels. A break in the narrative would come from a stronger USD, firmer real yields, or an easing of fiscal/deficit fears that reduces the debasement hedge premium. For now, the best expression is to own duration in the trade rather than chase the most levered miners.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long GLD or YGTFF on pullbacks; use this as the cleanest 1-3 month expression of reserve-diversification demand, with a hard stop if DXY reclaims its recent breakout zone.
• Pair long GLD / short UUP for the next 4-8 weeks; thesis breaks if U.S. real yields rise materially or the dollar resumes trend strength.
• Prefer royalty/streaming exposure over high-cost miners: long FNV or WPM vs short a basket of marginal producers if gold rallies but AISC inflation stays sticky.
• If chasing upside, use 6-12 month call spreads in GLD rather than outright miner beta; better risk/reward if the path to higher prices is slow and headline-driven.