New Poll: Voters Are Realizing This Income Tax Is Coming for Everyone

A Vote Yes Repeal the Income Tax release reports that support for repealing Washington Initiative 645 rose to 67% in Congressional District 8 and 62% in District 5 when surveyed voters were shown a plain description identifying it as an income tax. Under the official ballot language, the districts supported I-645 by 48% to 43% and 46% to 43%, respectively. NMR Research surveyed 188 voters in District 8 and 222 in District 5 on Oct. 18–19; the results are from two districts, not a statewide poll, and ballots are due Nov. 3.

Analysis

This is an interested campaign release, not a dependable statewide forecast. Its key signal is that wording may materially affect voter responses; the small district samples and wide margins of error make the reported swing a weak basis for repricing fiscal outcomes. With ballots due Nov. 3, the near-term catalyst is the result itself, but the release does not establish either the statewide vote or the measure’s revenue impact.

If repeal passes, the economic effect depends on the tax’s actual base, rate, effective date, and the state’s ability to offset lost revenue. A repeal could benefit taxpayers covered by the measure, while increasing pressure to trim spending or find replacement revenue; those second-order effects could weigh on state-linked contractors and public-service providers. If repeal fails, the tax may still face implementation, legal, or political challenges before its stated 2029 collection date. Do not translate this into a company-level earnings call without confirming exposure.

Contrarian read: the poll’s strongest investable information may be uncertainty around ballot-language comprehension, not a two-thirds repeal mandate. The release has an advocacy incentive, and its subgroup results should not be extrapolated to all Washington voters. No clear listed-equity trade is supported absent the official fiscal note and a credible statewide polling average.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No directional trade on Washington equities or state credit from this release alone; treat the poll as a low-confidence election signal.
• Before the Nov. 3 result, verify the official fiscal note, tax base and rate, implementation timeline, and any legal challenges. These determine whether repeal changes household cash flows, state revenues, or both.
• Monitor the official result and subsequent budget response. A repeal win would not by itself establish the scale or timing of spending cuts or replacement revenue; a defeat would not guarantee uninterrupted implementation.
• Falsification/watch item: credible statewide polling or the certified result contradicts the campaign’s framing-based district findings; for any later trade, require evidence of a material revenue or spending revision rather than relying on vote rhetoric.