Are Oklo and NuScale Power Still a Buy After Data Center Backlash?

Public sentiment toward data centers is turning sharply negative, with Gallup polling showing ~70% of Americans oppose local data-center construction and nearly half strongly opposed—citing excessive resource use (18% each for water and energy) plus environmental concerns. The article warns this backlash could slow adoption of small modular reactors (SMRs) used to co-locate nuclear power with data-center demand, potentially undermining companies like Oklo and NuScale. It also highlights competition from natural gas, including SpaceX’s push for additional gas supply, while Alphabet plans to build three conventional nuclear plants in the U.S. capable of at least 600 MW each—shifting incremental power demand away from SMRs.

Analysis

The market is likely over-reading local opposition as a demand shock when the bigger effect is a re-optimization of power sourcing. That shifts spend away from speculative, pre-revenue SMR optionality and toward slower but financeable solutions: gas peakers, grid upgrades, and utility-scale nuclear PPAs. In that mix, OKLO/SMR lose the most because their valuation depends on customers paying up for speed; if gas can bridge the next 2-5 years, the premium narrows.

Near term, this is mainly a multiple event, not an earnings event: SMR names can re-rate down 15-30% on sentiment alone even before any project cancellations show up. Over 1-3 months, the key catalyst is whether hyperscalers keep signing firm power contracts; a single credible off-take or licensing milestone would force a squeeze. Over 6-18 months, the structural winner is the company with the best balance sheet and power optionality, not the most ambitious reactor design.

Consensus is missing that AI build-outs can be deferred or geographically rerouted without being destroyed. That makes the bearish read on NVDA too aggressive unless power scarcity starts pushing deployment timelines out by multiple quarters. The cleaner contrarian position is to short the least proven part of the stack, while recognizing that any federal fast-track on small reactors would invalidate the trade quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short SMR on strength for a 1-3 month horizon; target 20-30% downside on de-rating, with a hard stop if a major hyperscaler announces a binding SMR off-take or licensing accelerates materially.
• Pair trade: long GOOGL / short SMR, using GOOGL as the better capitalized power-securement winner versus a pre-commercial reactor story; expect the spread to widen if power planning shifts toward conventional generation and gas bridge solutions over the next 1-3 quarters.
• Keep NVDA as a watch item rather than an outright short; only add downside exposure if data center permits or capex guidance start slipping by more than one quarter, because the first-order impact is timing, not demand destruction.
• If seeking second-order energy exposure, consider a small long in natural-gas infrastructure/services proxies on pullbacks for a 6-12 month view; the thesis is bridge-fuel demand, but size should stay modest until there is visible volume evidence.