United Natural Foods, ABM Industries and 3 Stocks to Watch Heading Into Tuesday

Novartis disclosed that its Phase III HORIZON trial for pelacarsen failed to meet its primary endpoint, sending shares down 4.7% to $152.50 after hours. United Natural Foods, ABM Industries and Casey's General Stores are scheduled to report quarterly results, with consensus estimates of $0.61 EPS on $7.68B revenue, $1.01 on $2.31B, and $6.75 on $5.57B, respectively. Co-Diagnostics also announced its CFO's departure and appointed Daniel Bohrer as principal financial officer.

Analysis

NVS’s trial failure is more consequential for the Lp(a) ecosystem than for Novartis’s near-term earnings base: it removes a potential late-decade growth leg and raises the required proof threshold for competing RNA-based programs. IONIS is the clearest second-order loser if its economic participation includes milestones or royalties tied to pelacarsen; conversely, AMGN and LLY may see an initial relative-value bid in olpasiran and lepodisiran, but only if the failure is molecule-specific rather than evidence that lowering Lp(a) does not translate into cardiovascular benefit. The key diligence item is event-rate and achieved Lp(a)-reduction data; a clean biomarker reduction with no outcome benefit would be materially more damaging to the entire target class than an execution, adherence, or population-selection issue.

For the earnings names, consensus EPS is less useful than the quality of incremental margin and cash conversion. UNFI remains a high-operating-leverage grocery-distribution story: evidence that procurement, shrink, and labor discipline are sustaining margin improvement can drive a disproportionate equity response, while any working-capital rebuild or customer-volume weakness would expose the balance sheet. CASY’s multiple requires continued same-store merchandise/fuel-margin execution and accretive unit growth; ABM needs organic revenue and contract-margin evidence rather than a nominal beat. These are event trades only—current inputs lack estimates, positioning, and guidance ranges needed to establish a high-conviction pre-print position.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid buying the initial NVS dip until management identifies whether HORIZON failed because of efficacy, safety, event rates, or trial design. If disclosure indicates target-level failure, short a basket of Lp(a)-exposed development names versus long XLV for a 1-3 month de-rating trade; cover if competitor outcome data or regulators validate a differentiated mechanism.
• Place IONIS on an immediate estimate-revision watch: quantify any removed milestone/royalty value after its next filing or call. A material reduction in risk-adjusted collaboration value would support a 3-6 month underweight versus XBI; no trade if economics are immaterial or retained pipeline value offsets the loss.
• For UNFI, use post-results confirmation rather than pre-earnings direction: initiate a 1-3 month long only if adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, and leverage all improve while full-year guidance is maintained or raised. Exit on renewed working-capital consumption or a leverage increase; this is a high-beta equity where a modest margin miss can outweigh an EPS beat.
• For CASY, wait for same-store sales, inside-margin, and new-store economics. A long is justified only on evidence that returns on recent unit additions remain above the company’s cost of capital; otherwise, its premium multiple creates a cleaner short-term downside skew after even a small comp or margin miss.