Set Yourself Up for a Strong 2027: 2 Pharmaceutical Stocks to Buy in September

CRISPR Therapeutics is expected to begin recognizing meaningful Casgevy revenue in 2027, with analysts projecting reported revenue to rise from just over $40 million this year to more than $156 million next year. Vertex-facilitated Casgevy revenue reached $76 million in Q2, up 78% year over year from $43 million in Q1, although CRISPR's revenue recognition is delayed until treatment completion. Viking Therapeutics' VK2735 remains unapproved but has shown encouraging trial data for monthly injectable and prospective oral GLP-1 weight-loss treatments; analysts' $93.11 consensus target implies 175% upside.

Analysis

CRSP’s investable issue is not headline sales growth but the conversion of treatment-center throughput, payer approvals, and manufacturing completion into recognized economics. That creates a potentially sharp 2027 revenue inflection, but also makes quarterly estimates unusually vulnerable to timing noise; a delayed cohort can shift revenue across periods without changing underlying demand. VRTX is the cleaner way to own the franchise because it controls commercialization and has a diversified earnings base, while CRSP retains greater upside torque but remains dependent on one complex, capacity-constrained launch and ongoing pipeline funding.

VKTX should be valued as a clinical and strategic option rather than as a near-term GLP-1 revenue story. The key question is whether its differentiated dosing/form factor can produce adherence or tolerability advantages sufficient to overcome LLY and NVO’s scale, payer leverage, manufacturing capacity, and likely aggressive price competition by the time VK2735 could launch. Consensus upside targets are therefore a poor risk measure: Phase 3 design, discontinuation rates, lean-mass outcomes, and an oral formulation’s exposure profile matter more than incremental early-stage efficacy updates.

Near term, the likely asymmetry is positive for VKTX around trial-start and partnership/M&A speculation, but negative if capital needs rise before a strategic transaction; obesity-development valuations can compress rapidly when comparables report safety or durability issues. Over 6-18 months, successful execution would pressure smaller obesity peers without differentiated delivery, while a credible monthly-maintenance profile could make VKTX strategically relevant to LLY, NVO, AMGN, or large pharma seeking metabolic exposure. The contrarian view is that convenience alone may not command premium reimbursement unless it demonstrably lowers discontinuations or total cost of care.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Prefer long VRTX over CRSP for the next 1-3 months; use CRSP only as a higher-beta satellite position. Reassess after each quarterly update for completed-treatment volume, authorization duration, and revenue conversion rather than nominal patient starts.
• Establish a modest long VKTX event position only ahead of defined Phase 3/oral-program milestones, sized as binary clinical risk. Target a 6-12 month catalyst window; exit if trial design implies noncompetitive efficacy, excessive discontinuations, or a financing that materially extends dilution risk.
• For a relative-value expression, long VRTX / short CRSP is attractive if CRSP rerates on anticipated revenue before reported revenue and operating-cash-flow evidence arrives. Falsify the trade if CRSP demonstrates sustained completion throughput that materially exceeds expectations or secures a second major commercial validation.
• Do not add broad short exposure to LLY or NVO on VKTX progress alone. Consider only a small VKTX/LLY relative long after independently verified late-stage differentiation in adherence, tolerability, or maintenance dosing; absent that evidence, incumbents’ supply scale and formulary access remain the stronger competitive moat.
• Set an alert for VKTX cash runway and partnership disclosures over the next two quarters. A non-dilutive regional partnership or takeout interest would improve upside asymmetry; an equity raise without clear Phase 3 de-risking would be a catalyst to reduce exposure.