Morgan Stanley names Scout24 top pick, cuts Vend on rising competition

Morgan Stanley downgraded Vend Marketplaces to equal-weight from overweight and cut its price target to NOK275 from NOK320, reducing FY27/FY28 EBITDA estimates by 3%/4% and EPS forecasts by 3%/4%. The broker cited Mobility execution problems in Sweden and Denmark, accelerating AI-related competitive and investment risks in Jobs, and Vinted-driven Recommerce pressure across the Nordic region. Morgan Stanley instead named Scout24 its European classifieds top pick, setting a €114 target implying roughly 50% upside, supported by AI product monetization and projected FY26-FY28 EPS CAGR of about 20%.

Analysis

The actionable read-through is a widening quality spread within European classifieds rather than a sector-wide de-rating. G24’s monetization appears increasingly software-like: higher-value workflow tools can raise ARPU without proportionate traffic-acquisition costs, supporting operating leverage and a premium multiple if adoption converts to durable retention. VEND faces the opposite setup—price realization is being tested precisely as product friction and lower-cost recommerce alternatives weaken customer willingness to absorb increases—creating downside risk to both growth and incremental margins.

Over the next 1-3 months, the key catalyst is KPI divergence at results: G24 needs continued paid-product penetration, ARPU uplift and stable real-estate listing activity; VEND needs evidence that dealer churn and private-listing engagement have normalized. A weak VEND print could prompt a second estimate-reset cycle because consensus cuts have been modest relative to the operational issues, while G24 can rerate if management demonstrates that AI revenue is additive rather than merely bundled into existing customers. The principal risk to the pair is a European housing downturn: it would pressure G24’s core property vertical faster than it affects VEND’s diversified exposure.

Consensus may be underestimating the cost of defending marketplace liquidity in Nordic recommerce. If VEND responds to Vinted with marketing subsidies or lower take rates, revenue pressure can be limited initially but EBITDA deterioration could exceed current expectations; that outcome would challenge the market’s treatment of the business as a high-margin classifieds compounder. Conversely, the downgrade may be fully reflected if post-migration engagement and dealer spend recover quickly, making the short leg unsuitable after a sharp gap-down without confirming KPI weakness.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a 6-12 month relative-value position: long G24 / short VEND, sized beta-neutral and FX-hedged (EUR/NOK). The thesis is multiple expansion plus estimate resilience at G24 against further margin and execution de-risking at VEND; reassess if G24’s paid AI/workflow ARPU growth decelerates materially for two consecutive reporting periods or VEND restores professional ARPA growth above management’s medium-term range.
• Add to the G24 long only on evidence of recurring monetization—not headline AI adoption—specifically sustained growth in paid workflow customers and revenue per customer at the next results. The upside case requires earnings delivery sufficient to validate the premium; reduce exposure if German property transaction/listing indicators weaken sharply or management cuts medium-term growth expectations.
• Use VEND earnings as the decision point for the short rather than chasing an immediate downgrade-driven move. Enter or increase only if private-listing activity, dealer retention, or Recommerce unit economics remain impaired; cover if migration-related engagement normalizes and management demonstrates margin preservation without incremental promotional spending.
• No standalone trade in MS: the research call is unlikely to be material to group earnings. Monitor instead for broader sell-side estimate revisions in European online classifieds, which would validate a sector dispersion trade rather than a single-broker signal.