Rocket Thrusters on a Road Car Arrive as EV Makers Split Into Winners and Laggards

Global EV sales grew 20% to more than 20 million in 2025, with the IEA expecting 23 million in 2026; China produced over 80% of battery cells in 2025. Company updates were mixed: Rivian deliveries rose roughly 45% year over year to 19,248 and it reaffirmed 2026 guidance of 65,000–70,000, while Tesla deliveries fell 2% to 486,532 and GM’s U.S. EV sales declined about 62% to 25,213. Lucid produced 2,954 vehicles and delivered 3,806; lithium carbonate futures fell 11.8% to 104,740 yuan per ton before Mizuho upgraded Albemarle, whose Q2 sales rose 31.1% to $1.7 billion.

Analysis

The useful distinction is between demand growth and investable earnings: an oil shock can improve EV economics, but its effect is reversible if oil prices retreat, while lost U.S. incentives expose affordability and demand elasticity immediately. That makes regional mix and vehicle-level contribution more important than global unit growth. China’s battery-material concentration also limits how quickly Western EV growth translates into domestic supply-chain profits; any diversification benefit is likely a multi-year policy and capex story, not a near-term earnings tailwind.

Rivian’s volume trajectory is comparatively constructive, but the key test is whether R2 adds scale without diluting per-vehicle economics or consuming more cash than expected. Lucid’s inventory drawdown and lower production may support near-term cash discipline, yet are not evidence of recovered demand; its reset needs validation in cash flow and gross-margin disclosures. GM’s EV comparison is unusually vulnerable to the incentive pull-forward effect, so the much steeper EV decline than total vehicle sales should not be extrapolated mechanically. Tesla’s Roadster is a distant, unpriced product promise; it should not distract from core delivery trends and the quality of energy-storage economics at the October 21 report.

For lithium, storage demand may cushion EV weakness, but one analyst upgrade does not negate a falling futures market. The November 4 report should clarify realized pricing, volumes, and whether storage growth offsets commodity-price pressure. The contrarian risk is treating the global EV curve as a synchronized U.S. recovery; policy divergence could leave headline growth strong while U.S.-exposed manufacturers remain under pressure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid broad EV-sector longs ahead of near-term earnings. Use Tesla’s October 21 report to assess core auto demand and storage profitability; a Roadster-driven rally without improvement in those measures is a fade candidate, while a core-demand stabilization would invalidate that view.
• Consider a modest, market-neutral RIVN-versus-LCID pair only after both companies report: favor Rivian if R2 growth is accompanied by credible unit-economics and cash-flow progress; reverse or exit if guidance weakens or launch costs overwhelm volume. The main risk is that neither company demonstrates self-funding growth.
• Do not short GM solely on the EV year-over-year decline. Reassess after separating incentive-related comparison effects from underlying model demand and margins; broad U.S. sales deterioration or weaker guidance would make the bearish case more durable.
• Keep ALB on an event watchlist rather than buying the upgrade narrative. At its November 4 results, verify realized lithium pricing, Energy Storage volumes, and cash-flow guidance; sustained price weakness without an offset in volumes would falsify the demand-cushion thesis.