Wall Street is getting bullish on SpaceX again ahead of test flights

SpaceX closed Friday at $158.96, about 1% below its first-day closing price after declining in the months following its June Nasdaq debut. Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo rate the stock overweight, with price targets of $300 and $212, implying roughly 88% and 33% upside, respectively; analysts cite Starship’s potential, with the next test flight expected later this month or in early November. Wells Fargo says engineering teams are prioritizing AI satellites for an orbital demonstration targeted for 2Q 2027. Deutsche Bank says a space-sector rebound may be near after a correction that took the U.S. New Space cohort down more than 60% at its low.

Analysis

The setup is a catalyst trade, not yet evidence that long-dated orbital-compute economics are bankable. A successful booster recovery and a Starship ship catch are distinct milestones: investors may price the first as operational progress while the second—and repeatable cadence—is what could materially change launch economics. Treat analyst targets and “cheap for growth” framing cautiously; at the cited earnings multiple, execution delays or weaker core launch/connectivity performance can overwhelm narrative upside.

Over the next few weeks, the asymmetry is event-driven: a clean test could support momentum, but a partial success may disappoint if expectations center on a ship catch. Over 1–3 months, watch launch cadence, recovery milestones, and evidence that engineering reassignment is not impairing existing services. Over 6–18 months, orbital AI satellites are an option whose value depends on demonstration results, delivery economics, and Starship cadence—not merely announced plans. Slippage would benefit alternative launch providers such as Rocket Lab at the margin, while satellite and orbital-compute suppliers could gain only if deployment becomes funded and repeatable. The key contrarian risk is that investors extrapolate a successful test into commercial scale too quickly. Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) has no direct operating read-through from SpaceX’s debut or launch milestones.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid chasing SPCX ahead of the test on analyst targets alone. If taking exposure, use a small, defined-risk position; consider a call spread only if listed options have adequate liquidity, with sizing that assumes a failed or inconclusive test can gap the shares down.
• Add only after the milestone is verified and the market distinguishes booster recovery from ship catch; then require follow-through in launch cadence or guidance before underwriting the orbital-AI thesis.
• Track explicit falsifiers: a failed test, repeated schedule slips, evidence that launch/connectivity execution is being impaired by engineer redeployment, or delayed orbital demonstration plans. Any of these weakens the growth premium and argues against adding.
• Keep Rocket Lab on a relative watchlist as a potential beneficiary of Starship delays, but do not initiate a pair trade without checking launch backlog, customer substitution, valuation, and whether the delay actually redirects contracts.