Growing, adapting and defending: New Wipfli research reveals how banks and credit unions are navigating AI, growth and risk

Wipfli's 2027 surveys found 63% of bank executives and 69% of credit union executives expect asset growth above 5% over the next 12 months; among institutions with more than $5 billion in bank assets and $1 billion in credit union assets, expectations were 76% and 82%, respectively. Nearly 60% in both sectors said AI outcomes exceeded expectations, but cybersecurity and fraud remain the top concerns: 38% of bank executives reported increased cyberattacks and 46% increased fraud activity in the past year, while 63% of credit union executives reported increased fraud. The survey points to growth and technology investment alongside persistent security, governance and regulatory risks.

Analysis

Survey signal, not earnings signal. The main second-order risk is that expected asset growth can be a balance-sheet burden rather than an earnings tailwind: if deposits are won through higher rates, funding costs may absorb loan growth, while faster expansion can consume capital and increase credit and operational risk. Credit unions’ emphasis on deposit acquisition makes deposit pricing and retention more decision-useful than the headline growth expectations. The survey does not establish realized growth, AI ROI, or incremental technology budgets; treat its AI results as executive-reported, not independently verified.

Beneficiaries and friction. Sustained modernization could support demand for core-platform and digital-banking vendors such as Jack Henry, Fiserv, Q2 and nCino, and for security providers such as CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. But institutions may redirect finite technology budgets toward fraud controls and governance, delaying discretionary digital projects. Higher fraud incidence is a demand signal, not proof of vendor revenue acceleration; verify contract wins, bookings and guidance.

Timing / contrarian view. Near term, this survey alone is unlikely to justify repricing banks or vendors. Over 1–3 months, watch bank and credit-union results for deposit costs, net interest margins, fraud losses and technology spend. Over 6–18 months, governed AI deployment may improve service and back-office productivity, but adoption could be slower where security or regulatory reviews constrain rollout. Consensus may overread reported AI success: the counter-risk is that productivity gains accrue to institutions and competition, not software vendors. Falsifiers include deposit-cost acceleration, margin deterioration, weaker tech-vendor bookings, or material cyber incidents that cause deployment pauses.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No directional trade on the survey alone; avoid treating projected asset growth or reported AI outcomes as earnings forecasts.
• Use upcoming financial-institution results as the catalyst check: track deposit costs and net interest margins alongside fraud losses, technology budgets and AI deployment disclosures. Reassess the growth-positive view if funding costs rise faster than asset yields or guidance weakens.
• Keep Jack Henry, Fiserv, Q2, nCino and cybersecurity providers on a vendor watchlist, not as automatic buys. Require evidence of bookings or guidance conversion; a spending shift toward security and governance could benefit security vendors while deferring digital projects.