Looking for Earnings Beat? Buy These 5 Top-Ranked Stocks

A Zacks screen identified e.l.f. Beauty, IMAX, Cracker Barrel, Fortinet and Valero Energy as candidates for earnings surprises; these are prospective picks, not reported results. The screen required, among other criteria, a last-quarter EPS surprise of at least 10%, average surprises above 20% over the past four quarters and next 3–5-year estimated EPS growth above 10% annually. Their reported four-quarter average EPS surprises ranged from 20.34% for Fortinet to 228.64% for Cracker Barrel.

Analysis

The screen is not a catalyst: trailing estimate beats can reflect conservative consensus, volatile earnings, or one-off factors, and do not establish that the next quarter is underpriced. The key near-term risk is a “beat and sell” outcome if guidance, forward indicators, or the quality of earnings disappoints. A beat matters only relative to the bar and the forward path.

Underwrite each name against its own driver, not as a five-stock basket. For ELF, check organic demand, promotions, and inventory before treating EPS upside as durable; stronger discounting could lift sales while weakening the quality of growth. For FTNT, bookings/billings and deferred-revenue signals matter more than a backward-looking EPS surprise. For IMAX, a lumpy release slate makes quarter-to-quarter beats weak evidence of structural acceleration. For CBRL, test traffic and comparable-sales direction against labor and food-cost pressure; a large historical surprise percentage can be distorted by a low estimate base. For VLO, separate refining-margin and utilization effects from recurring earnings power: commodity-driven upside can reverse quickly.

Horizon: over days, positioning and the implied earnings bar dominate; over 1–3 months, guidance revisions and operating indicators should determine follow-through; over 6–18 months, competitive demand, cost structure, and refining-cycle exposure matter more than surprise streaks. The contrarian point is that the article’s “beat” framing may invite pre-earnings buying precisely when the relevant hurdle is guidance and durability. No trade is justified from this screen alone; verify report dates, current consensus, options-implied moves, and the underlying operating metrics first.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not buy the five-name basket solely on the screener. Before any event position, verify each report date, consensus EPS/revenue, recent estimate revisions, and options-implied move; these are absent from the article.
• Treat FTNT as a post-report watch: consider a long only if forward bookings/billings or guidance corroborate EPS upside; a beat with weaker forward indicators falsifies the bullish setup.
• For ELF and CBRL, wait for evidence on demand quality—promotional intensity/inventory for ELF and traffic/comps plus cost commentary for CBRL. Avoid interpreting an EPS beat alone as a durable improvement.
• For IMAX and VLO, avoid extrapolating one quarter: track release-slate visibility for IMAX and refining margins/utilization for VLO. A reversal in those drivers would invalidate any earnings-led follow-through.