FTSE 100 today: Stocks edge up ahead of U.S. CPI

European equities were modestly higher, with the FTSE 100 up 0.06%, as investors awaited U.S. inflation data; economists forecast September headline inflation of 3.6–3.7% and core inflation of 2.5%. BoE chief economist Huw Pill questioned whether four quarter-point hikes priced by markets would be needed, while geopolitical risks around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz persisted; Brent rose 0.47% to $106.19 a barrel. In UK company updates, Softcat reported annual gross profit up 24.7% to £616.3 million and forecast high-single-digit underlying operating profit growth for fiscal 2027, excluding its planned GDT acquisition; Ashmore estimated assets under management rose 1% to $54.5 billion.

Analysis

The headline and body are mismatched: the article provides no ASML-specific outlook or capacity information, so there is no defensible ASML catalyst here. Do not trade ASML on the headline alone.

The more actionable signal is asymmetric rates risk. A hotter U.S. inflation print or renewed energy escalation could revive front-end tightening expectations; that would pressure rate-sensitive equities and EM duration before any earnings impact is visible. Conversely, if inflation is contained and the Bank of England resists the market’s more aggressive path, UK domestic risk assets may get relief—but persistent energy costs could still erode margins and household demand over the next 1–3 months.

Softcat’s results support company-specific resilience, but gross profit growth is not a proxy for operating-profit growth: the stated FY27 outlook is materially more modest, and the planned U.S. acquisition adds execution and comparability risk. Treat it as a relative-quality candidate, not a broad UK IT demand signal. Ashmore’s inflows are encouraging but were not enough to prevent negative investment performance; flows can reverse quickly if higher yields, dollar strength, or risk aversion weigh on EM assets.

Contrarian angle: geopolitical risk is not only an oil-price shock. Threats to regional data infrastructure could raise risk premia for exposed operators and insurers, but the article supplies no named listed exposure to underwrite. The thesis weakens if energy prices retreat and inflation data cool without a renewed rate repricing.

Key Decisions for Investors

• ASML: no position based on this article. Verify the actual company outlook announcement and capacity details before attributing a catalyst; the body does not support the headline.
• SCT: consider a measured long on weakness versus a UK technology/IT benchmark, contingent on confirmation that operating-profit guidance and U.S. acquisition economics support the thesis. Reassess if guidance is cut or integration costs dilute execution.
• ASHM: avoid chasing the reported inflows; monitor the next flow update alongside EM investment performance, the U.S. dollar, and yields. Persistent outflows or continued negative performance would falsify the stabilization thesis.
• Near term, keep portfolio duration and energy sensitivity explicit into U.S. inflation data and geopolitical headlines. A hotter CPI or renewed escalation argues against adding rate-sensitive risk; a benign print plus easing oil would support selectively adding it.