FERRARI N.V.: PERIODIC REPORT ON THE BUYBACK PROGRAM

Ferrari repurchased 35,641 common shares for €12.68 million between September 2 and September 4, 2026, at an average aggregate price of €355.72 per share. The purchases are part of a newly announced €250 million third buyback tranche within Ferrari's approximately €3.5 billion multi-year repurchase program targeted for completion by 2030. The activity signals continued shareholder-return execution, though the disclosed purchases represent a small portion of the authorized tranche.

Analysis

The near-term market effect is primarily technical: recurring repurchases can reduce available float and dampen drawdowns, but the disclosed pace is too small to alter earnings power or establish a durable valuation floor on its own. At Ferrari’s premium multiple, buyback accretion depends heavily on whether management can sustain pricing, mix and margin progression; retiring stock at elevated valuations is capital-return signaling rather than a fundamental catalyst.

Over the next 1-3 months, the relevant question is whether execution remains systematic during periods of share-price weakness. A larger-than-expected acceleration would signal management conviction and may tighten the supply/demand balance, while a pause would expose how much recent support was flow-driven. Watch for FX translation effects on U.S. investor returns and for any incremental capital-return guidance, rather than extrapolating a few days of purchases.

The contrarian view is that buyback headlines can invite investors to treat RACE as a defensive compounder regardless of cycle. Ferrari’s scarcity model provides unusual resilience, but a luxury-demand slowdown, order-book normalization, or margin dilution from technology and electrification spending would matter far more than modest share-count reduction. The cleaner expression is not a standalone momentum chase: RACE’s valuation leaves limited tolerance for even modest guidance de-risking over the next 6-18 months.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain/establish RACE only on 5-8% pullbacks rather than buying the repurchase announcement; target a 6-12 month hold, with upside contingent on unchanged pricing and EBIT-margin guidance. Exit/reduce on an order-book or delivery outlook cut, as this would overwhelm buyback support.
• Use a relative-value framework: long RACE versus short STLA in equal beta-adjusted dollars for 3-6 months if luxury pricing remains intact while mass-market European auto pricing weakens. The thesis is margin durability and lower incentive exposure; stop out if RACE trims margin guidance or STLA demonstrates sustained North American pricing recovery.
• Set an alert for disclosed repurchase pacing versus the authorized tranche and for net-share-count change at the next results. Do not underwrite EPS accretion until the company’s completed repurchase amount, average retired price, and offsetting equity-compensation issuance are observable.
• Avoid short-dated calls solely on buyback flow. If seeking upside exposure into results, prefer a 6-9 month call spread financed by selling an out-of-the-money call, since implied upside should be capped by premium valuation unless guidance rises.