Most consulting partners expect pay to rise, but up to a third are open to careers beyond consulting, new Barton Partnership research finds

A survey of 725 consulting partners found 53%–60% across Europe, North America and APAC expect compensation to rise over the next 12 months, while 23%–31% may leave consulting within three years. Corporate general management was the top potential next step, and 64%–71% cited AI as a critical challenge. In Europe, 29% reported higher-than-expected partner attrition, up from 18% in 2024.

Analysis

Investment signal is modest: this is a recruitment-firm survey, and stated willingness to leave is not realized attrition. The more useful implication is a potential reallocation of senior talent—from consulting partnerships toward corporate transformation leadership and private-equity portfolio operations—while AI pressures consulting firms to prove that partner-heavy teams can still earn attractive returns.

If that shift materializes, consultancies could face higher lateral hiring and retention costs just as AI-driven delivery changes pricing and staffing leverage. Firms that retain client relationships and build credible AI-enabled offerings may gain share; firms reliant on individual partners or legacy delivery models could lose both talent and follow-on work. Corporate transformation teams and PE portfolio companies may gain access to experienced operators, though hiring them does not itself guarantee better execution. Executive-search and interim-management providers are a possible secondary beneficiary, but this survey alone does not establish incremental revenue.

Timing: little basis for a near-term earnings trade. Over 1–3 months, watch for corroboration in firm hiring, departures, and compensation disclosures. Over 6–18 months, the key structural question is whether AI supports higher-value work and productivity or instead compresses fees and demand for traditional consulting. The contrarian point is that strong pay expectations may indicate scarce talent and resilience—not an imminent exodus. Treat the reported intent as a risk flag, not a forecast.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No directional trade on this survey alone. Its self-reported intent data do not establish realized partner departures, client losses, or earnings effects.
• Build a watchlist of publicly traded professional-services firms and executive-search/interim providers, but verify which businesses have material exposure before taking positions; the article provides no company-level financial data.
• Over the next 1–3 months, seek confirmation in partner hiring and attrition, leadership disclosures, and evidence of AI-related fee or utilization changes. A sustained rise in departures alongside weaker guidance would strengthen the negative consulting thesis; stable retention and improving productivity would weaken it.
• For a 6–18 month thesis, prefer firms demonstrating AI-enabled delivery and durable client relationships over a sector-wide short. Reassess if AI adoption expands billable, higher-value work rather than compressing fees or staffing needs.