Only 1 Nasdaq-100 Stock Yields More Than 10-Year Treasuries at 5%. Here's My Top Pick to Buy Now.

Comcast is the Nasdaq-100's only stock yielding above 5%, offering a 5.8% dividend yield versus a 10-year Treasury yield that recently reached 5%, while trading at less than 7x forward earnings. The company has raised distributions for 18 consecutive years, but shares have fallen 23% over the past year and more than 50% over five years amid persistent cable subscriber losses and weakening broadband market share. The bullish case centers on the planned 2027 NBCUniversal spinoff, which would retain profitable Peacock, theme parks, and a movie studio with two $1B-plus global box-office releases this year.

Analysis

CMCSA’s valuation is pricing the connectivity business as a melting ice cube while assigning little or no standalone value to the remaining NBCUniversal assets. The key underwriting question is not whether video subscriber losses persist, but whether broadband ARPU, churn and fixed-wireless substitution stabilize sufficiently to preserve the parent’s cash-flow capacity through separation. If they do, the post-spin capital structure could force a rerating from a cable multiple toward a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with parks, studio and Peacock receiving materially higher multiples than legacy distribution.

The near-term risk is that management uses the separation narrative to obscure a faster deterioration in broadband economics. Fixed-wireless competition is most damaging if it forces retention pricing: even modest ARPU pressure can have outsized EBITDA effects because network costs are largely fixed. A dividend that appears inexpensive on trailing cash flow becomes a value trap if broadband net adds remain negative and capital intensity rises; the relevant falsifier is a sustained decline in connectivity EBITDA or adverse free-cash-flow guidance, not the headline yield.

Consensus may also be too quick to assume the NBCUniversal separation is purely accretive. Standalone media assets can lose the parent’s balance-sheet flexibility and bundled advertising/customer relationships, while transaction costs and stranded overhead may delay value recognition. Conversely, if management provides pro forma segment EBITDA, debt allocation and capital-return policy before the transaction, CMCSA could rerate months before the legal separation rather than at completion.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a 6-12 month long CMCSA position only after the next earnings release confirms stabilization in broadband revenue per customer and no material cut to free-cash-flow outlook; target a 15-25% total-return outcome from multiple normalization plus carry. Exit if connectivity EBITDA declines year-over-year for two consecutive quarters or dividend coverage deteriorates materially.
• Use a defined-risk event structure: buy CMCSA 12-18 month calls or call spreads around investor disclosures on NBCUniversal capitalization and pro forma financials. This isolates the rerating catalyst while limiting exposure to a worsening fixed-wireless price war; avoid short-dated options because timing of separation disclosures is uncertain.
• For relative-value exposure, consider long CMCSA / short CHTR in equal dollar beta-adjusted amounts over 6-18 months. The thesis is that CMCSA has a potentially separable non-connectivity asset base while CHTR remains more directly exposed to mature cable economics; cover the short if CHTR demonstrates materially better broadband net-add or EBITDA trends.
• Set an alert for any increase in promotional intensity from T-Mobile (TMUS), Verizon (VZ) or AT&T (T) fixed wireless. A broad acceleration in cable churn would invalidate a CMCSA-specific sum-of-the-parts thesis and argues for reducing exposure before the separation catalyst.