Americans are Rethinking Holiday Spending as Rising Costs Squeeze Budgets, Thrivent Survey Finds

Thrivent's 2026 survey found 68% of Americans plan to cut at least one holiday expense, with 72% saying inflation is hurting household finances and 75% of those more concerned about holiday finances citing rising everyday costs. Among people cutting gift spending, 66% plan to buy fewer gifts (up from 56% in 2025), while 46% plan to buy for fewer people (up from 37%). The survey points to pressure on household budgets and discretionary spending but is not a company earnings update.

Analysis

The investable signal is mix and share shift, not proof of a broad holiday-sales collapse. A greater share of gift cutters reducing the number of gifts and recipients points to pressure on units and basket breadth; price promotions may protect nominal sales while eroding margins for discretionary retailers. Dining out and travel are also exposed, but this survey cannot quantify company-level revenue changes or establish that consumers will follow through.

Likely relative beneficiaries are value-oriented retailers such as Walmart, Costco and TJX, if shoppers trade down rather than abandon purchases. Specialty gift and apparel retailers, restaurants and holiday travel providers face greater downside exposure. That is a conditional channel hypothesis, not evidence of company-specific results. The survey is a useful near-term warning, but self-reported intentions and the unchanged overall share expecting cutbacks versus 2025 argue against treating it as a fresh aggregate-demand shock.

Timing: limited immediate read-through; the 1–3 month test is holiday traffic, units per transaction, discounting and management commentary. Over 6–18 months, persistent trade-down could favor scale and value formats while pressuring full-price discretionary margins. The contrarian risk is over-weighting intent: spending could hold up in dollars if shoppers substitute toward cheaper goods, while higher gas costs may redirect rather than eliminate some leisure spending. No broad consumer short is warranted on this survey alone.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate directional trade. Treat this as a watch signal for holiday demand, not a stand-alone earnings forecast; survey intent does not establish realized spending or company-level exposure.
• Consider a small, confirmation-dependent relative-value position: long value-oriented retail exposure (Walmart, Costco or TJX) against more gift- and occasion-sensitive discretionary retailers. Enter only if holiday updates show value-channel resilience alongside weaker units or heavier promotions elsewhere; cap risk because the survey does not identify brand-level winners.
• For the next 1–3 months, monitor retailer traffic, units per transaction, promotional intensity, restaurant comparable sales and travel bookings. A broad deterioration across these metrics would strengthen the downside case; stable units and margins would falsify it.
• Avoid extrapolating the gas-price finding into a specific travel short without booking and cancellation data. Escalate only if travel-company guidance or bookings weaken; otherwise the survey may reflect substitution toward closer-to-home activities rather than canceled leisure spending.