Are Oklo and NuScale Power Still a Buy After Data Center Backlash?

The article flags rising public opposition to data center construction—Gallup reports ~70% of Americans oppose local builds, with nearly half strongly opposed—arguing this could delay AI-driven power infrastructure timelines. It also cites a potential substitution risk: if near-term AI compute demand shifts toward natural gas (including SpaceX’s planned natural-gas pipeline) and conventional nuclear (e.g., Alphabet planning 3 plants totaling 600+ MW each), SMR demand for stocks like NuScale (SMR) and Oklo could be pushed back. Overall, the piece is a cautious read-through for SMR adoption given backlash plus a perceived near-term preference for natural gas/large nuclear over faster-but-higher-cost small modular reactors.

Analysis

The market should treat this less as a broad “nuclear is dead” signal and more as a valuation reset for pre-revenue SMR names. OKLO and SMR are priced on a shortcut to commercialization: high urgency from AI load growth, fast siting, and willingness to pay up for speed. If local opposition forces more friction in data-center permitting, hyperscalers can bridge with gas-fired capacity or conventional baseload, which pushes first meaningful SMR revenue further out and increases the discount rate applied to every future cash flow.

The immediate beneficiaries are the gas value chain and incumbent power solutions, not the nuclear developers. NGS is a cleaner expression of the bridge-fuel thesis than trying to own the speculative reactor names, while larger platforms like GOOGL are better positioned to absorb energy capex through long-dated PPAs and balance-sheet flexibility. Second-order, slower SMR adoption also helps preserve pricing power for conventional generation and grid interconnect providers, because the bottleneck shifts from “who can build fastest” to “who can actually permit and finance at scale.”

Contrarian view: public sentiment against data centers may be noisy, but it does not necessarily reduce total load; it may simply re-route projects to friendlier jurisdictions. The real falsifier for the short-SMR thesis is a credible utility-scale customer announcement, a regulatory greenlight, or a financing structure that de-risks first deployment. Absent that, the next 3-12 months favor continued multiple compression in SMR equities versus a steadier re-rating in gas-linked infrastructure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short OKLO or SMR on strength; preferred over the next 1-3 months as a valuation de-rate trade. Risk/reward is favorable because any positive AI-power headline can squeeze the stock, but the fundamental catalyst path remains years, not quarters.
• Long NGS as a bridge-fuel proxy for 6-12 months. Gas demand is the nearer-term substitute for deferred SMR adoption; thesis fails if we see rapid utility-scale nuclear procurement or a sharp drop in gas-fired load demand.
• Pair trade: long GOOGL / short SMR. GOOGL has balance-sheet optionality to source power via conventional projects or PPAs, while SMR still needs multiple regulatory and financing steps to prove its business model.
• Set an alert on any first-commercial SMR financing or construction approval for OKLO/SMR. That would be the clearest thesis breaker and should trigger cover, since it would re-open the “fast power” premium.