Turkey stocks higher at close of trade; BIST 100 up 1.22%

The market is treating the de-escalation signal as a short-duration relief event, but the bigger implication is that the geopolitical risk premium is now trading more as a headline option than a durable supply shock. That matters because near-term oil strength can persist even if the physical disruption never materializes: refiners, shipping, and regional importers are forced to hedge against tail risk, keeping prompt barrels bid while front-end volatility stays elevated. In practice, that supports a higher floor for energy equities and a weaker beta profile for rate-sensitive EM assets, even if crude gives back part of the spike.

Turkey is the cleaner second-order beneficiary here. Higher oil is normally a terms-of-trade headwind, but the market is signaling that geopolitics can temporarily overpower macro fundamentals, which helps local banks and domestically oriented cyclicals through a risk-on impulse and portfolio reallocation into “relative safety” names. The more interesting angle is FX: if elevated oil persists for weeks, imported-energy pressure should slowly leak into inflation expectations and reserve dynamics, making TRY drift a more persistent problem than today’s muted spot move suggests.

The contrarian view is that consensus may be underestimating the asymmetry of a fast reversal. If the ceasefire narrative sticks, crude’s current risk premium can deflate quickly because supply was never actually impaired, leaving late longs exposed to a sharp retracement over days rather than months. That sets up a classic fade-the-spike trade: energy may look structurally supported, but the incremental buyer here is likely short-covering and hedging, not fundamental demand, which is fragile once the headlines cool.