Ayvens 2029 strategic plan: Aim for excellence. Execute better, every day.

Ayvens raised its 2029 profitability target to a 14%-16% return on tangible equity, versus 13%-15% under PowerUP 2026, while targeting a cost-to-income ratio of about 49%, a 4ppt improvement from approximately 53% in 2026. The group plans at least 3% funded-fleet growth from 2026-29, including 15% retail growth and a 13% CAGR in used-car leasing to more than 100,000 vehicles, supported by AI-led productivity gains estimated at 30% across eight core processes. Capital targets include a c.12.5% CET1 ratio, a 50%-60% dividend payout ratio and returns of excess capital, while annual funding plans call for €1-2B each of retail deposits and securitizations plus €2-3B of bond issuance.

Analysis

AYV’s equity case now hinges less on fleet growth and more on whether it can convert scale into a structurally lower cost base without reintroducing residual-value losses. The targeted efficiency improvement implies meaningful operating leverage because expenses are expected to decline even as earning assets grow; however, much of the modeled benefit depends on execution across a recently integrated platform. The near-term rerating catalyst is management demonstrating this in Q3/Q4 2026 through run-rate cost reductions, stable credit losses and no deterioration in used-vehicle disposal results.

The key underappreciated offset is EV residual-value risk. Lower service intensity on BEVs reduces recurring maintenance-margin pools, while falling new-BEV prices can impair lease-end values faster than pricing models reset. A larger used-BEV lease business could become a differentiated low-cost mobility channel over 6-18 months, but only after used-BEV transaction prices, charging economics and consumer acceptance stabilize; until then, it is a source of embedded balance-sheet optionality rather than earnings to capitalize today.

Capital return should support AYV’s valuation only if the higher solvency buffer proves sufficient through a downturn. The funding mix leaves the company exposed to spread widening and deposit competition: a higher-than-assumed European rate path would pressure lease margins before repricing catches up. GLE has modest second-order upside through dividends and reduced capital needs at its controlled subsidiary, but the effect is unlikely to be material to group earnings; AYV is the cleaner expression.

Consensus may over-credit the AI narrative. Automation gains are plausible, but the relevant proof is absolute cost reduction and customer-retention stability, not announced process coverage. Conversely, the market may underweight the strategic value of a scaled, multi-brand used-vehicle distribution channel if EV residual values normalize, which could reduce capital intensity and differentiate AYV from bank-owned leasing peers focused principally on new-car originations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a modest long AYV ahead of the 29 October 2026 results only if management quantifies 2027 cost savings and confirms stable residual-value assumptions; target a 6-12 month rerating on credible cost delivery and capital-return visibility. Exit or hedge if used-car-sale losses recur or the cost-to-income trajectory fails to improve by at least 100bp in 2027.
• Prefer AYV over GLE for direct exposure: long AYV / short GLE in equal euro beta over 3-6 months isolates operating-execution upside from broader French-bank rate and credit exposure. Close the pair if GLE signals a change in subsidiary capital extraction or AYV funding spreads widen materially relative to bank senior spreads.
• Treat the EV used-lease expansion as a watch item, not an earnings trade, until management discloses vintage-level BEV residual-value performance, realized disposal gains/losses and lease pricing versus ICE. Positive evidence would justify adding to AYV for a 12-18 month structural-growth thesis; adverse residual-value revisions would invalidate it.
• Monitor ECB-rate expectations and European auto pricing monthly: a sustained upward move in funding costs without matching lease repricing, or accelerated BEV price cuts, warrants reducing AYV exposure regardless of headline efficiency progress.