Bank of America says these stocks have upside heading into September

Bank of America highlights several September upside candidates—most notably ASML (shares up 58% YTD) where it calls the de-rating “unjustified” and reiterates a Buy with a €2,452 price objective, citing best-in-class EPS growth via margin expansion. Madison Square Garden Entertainment (up 45% YTD) is viewed as firing on all cylinders after robust concert activity and Knicks-related tailwinds, with operating leverage expected to drive margin expansion. Tapestry is flagged for limited upside from already-high multiples but still strong fundamentals and accelerated capital returns, while Church & Dwight (up 21% YTD) is seen benefiting from portfolio reshaping and innovation-driven gross margin tailwinds.

Analysis

CHD is the cleanest quality compounder in this batch because the market typically rewards staples only when margin expansion looks durable, not cyclical. If management can keep shifting mix toward premium while protecting value offerings, the real beneficiary is not just CHD’s EPS base but its valuation multiple versus slower-moving household peers; that creates room for relative outperformance even in a weak macro. The main falsifier is a commodity/input-cost reset or evidence that innovation is simply defending share rather than taking it, which would cap the re-rating.

MSGE is a different animal: the stock is less about top-line growth than about how much fixed-cost leverage the venue can extract from premium seating, sponsorship, and booking density. That makes it attractive into a strong event calendar, but also fragile if calendars normalize or consumer spend shifts away from live entertainment; after a strong YTD move, the market is likely paying for continued operational perfection. Second-order, persistent strength here tends to pressure smaller venue operators and event-service vendors that cannot match pricing power.

TPR looks like the most mature setup. Strong cash generation can support the floor, but when a quality consumer name already trades near peak confidence, buybacks mostly cushion downside rather than create much upside. The consensus may be underestimating capital return discipline, but on a 6-18 month view CHD has more room for multiple expansion than TPR has for rerating unless growth re-accelerates materially.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long CHD on any 1-3 month pullback; target 8-12% upside from current levels as the market prices a higher gross-margin base. Invalidate if the next earnings cycle shows margin compression or downshifting organic sales.
• Put on a 6-12 month pair: long CHD / short TPR. The thesis is structural margin re-rating in CHD versus a more fully valued TPR with buybacks already embedded. Falsify if TPR posts an acceleration in organic sales or announces materially larger capital returns.
• Tactically add MSGE only on a 5-7% retracement or into a booking-positive catalyst window; this is an operating-leverage trade, not a quality-at-any-price long. Risk is that event density or premium pricing normalizes faster than consensus expects.
• Do not chase TPR after strength; if you need consumer exposure, prefer CHD over TPR on a relative basis. TPR’s upside looks capped unless the market gets a new growth leg from Coach or a meaningful multiple expansion catalyst.
• No actionable signal in BAC/SYBT/GSIW from this note; treat as watchlist only until there is a company-specific earnings or guidance catalyst.