SpaceX Stock Could Soar to $5 Trillion on IPO Day, According to a Wall Street Expert

SpaceX is set to IPO on Friday, June 12 at $135 per share, implying a $1.77 trillion initial valuation and a $75 billion capital raise. Jim Cramer argues strong demand and a 4.2% float could drive a first-day valuation as high as $5 trillion, while Morningstar pegs fair value at $780 billion, 56% below IPO value. The piece warns that investors may sell large-cap names like Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia to fund allocations, creating near-term pressure on the broader market.

Analysis

The immediate trade is not the listing itself but the forced financing event around it. If allocators need to fund a meaningful new position out of already-depleted cash balances, the first-order pressure lands in the most crowded mega-cap winners, where incremental selling can move prices despite deep liquidity. That creates a short-duration liquidity shock in AMZN/MSFT/NVDA that is more about portfolio rebalancing than fundamental deterioration, so the window is days to a few weeks, not quarters.

The bigger setup is a classic float scarcity trade: the IPO could gap aggressively on day one because the effective free-float is tiny relative to demand, but that is exactly what makes the post-lockup path vulnerable. Once supply expands over the next 90-180 days, the marginal buyer becomes more price-sensitive, and a valuation anchored to extremely rich sales multiples leaves little room for disappointment. In other words, the same scarcity premium that can drive a blow-off top also sets up a high-beta mean reversion once insider supply starts hitting the tape.

The more interesting second-order effect is on benchmark construction and active risk budgets. If new capital is siphoned into a single issuer, managers may trim high-conviction index heavyweights to preserve factor exposure, which can temporarily compress index performance even if the broader economy is unchanged. That dynamic should also help Nasdaq liquidity providers and event-driven desks, while Morningstar’s lower intrinsic value estimate provides a credible anchor for valuation shorts once post-IPO euphoria fades.

The contrarian view is that consensus may be underestimating the duration of retail/AI-like momentum in a highly narrative asset. If the first few prints are strong and the company controls supply through the lock-up, price can stay disconnected from fundamentals longer than valuation bears expect. So the right framing is not “short immediately,” but “fade strength after the opening scarcity window and/or after the first unlock calendar becomes visible.”

Key Decisions for Investors

• Trade the liquidity shock: short a basket of crowded mega-cap funding sources (AMZN/MSFT/NVDA) versus long cash or low-beta defensives for 1-3 weeks into/after pricing; target 2-4% relative underperformance if institutional rebalancing is real, stop if the IPO underwhelms and no selling pressure appears.
• If borrow/structure allows, fade the post-listing squeeze with a staged short in SPCX only after day-1 price discovery or on the first failed breakout; best risk/reward likely 2-6 weeks post-IPO rather than on the opening print, when upside can be mechanically squeezed.
• Buy longer-dated put spreads on SPCX tied to the 90-180 day unlock window; structure for limited premium outlay with payoff if the float expansion compresses the multiple toward lower private-market marks.
• Pair trade: long NDAQ / short SPCX once volume normalizes, capturing incremental exchange and listing economics while avoiding exposure to the overextended valuation; this is a cleaner way to monetize the event than outright market direction.
• Use the IPO as a catalyst to trim overowned AI mega-cap exposure into strength, especially NVDA, where any event-driven selling can amplify already elevated positioning and create a 1-2 week air pocket.